[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041043
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI MAY 02 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0800 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 13N16W TO
05N20W TO 03N27W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 03N27W TO 02N36W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL
NEAR 02S45W. A CLUSTER OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS NOTED FROM
06N-09N E OF 17W TO THE AFRICAN COAST. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 270 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
BETWEEN 17W-23W AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
BETWEEN 20W-26W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SPLIT FLOW OVER NORTH AMERICA HAS SENT THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER
JET THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH A 120 KT JET CORE
CURRENTLY PASSING OVER FLORIDA JUST AHEAD OF A POSITIVELY TILTED
DEEP-LAYER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM NE FLORIDA INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT AT THE SURFACE IS SLOWLY
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE FAR SE GULF...WITH
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N WINDS NOTED BEHIND IT ON THE 0316
UTC ASCAT PASS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS POOLED AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. CONDITIONS ARE MARKEDLY DRIER BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF...WITH DEW POINTS RISING OVER THE WESTERN GULF ON
THE WESTERN SIDE OF HIGH 1022 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 26N93W. THIS
HIGH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AS IT PROGRESSES INTO
THE ATLC. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF GULF WATERS LATER
TODAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
50 KT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN DIVIDES
AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR 17N77W AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE TROPICAL N ATLC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW DRY CONDITIONS
ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH ONLY ISOLATED TRADE WIND
SHOWERS NOTED IN THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS
INCREASED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE W OF 75W. CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY
CONFINED TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS WHERE MOISTURE IS THE MOST
PLENTIFUL AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS STRONGEST BETWEEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED ANTICYCLONE AND THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER JET
CENTERED JUST N OF THE AREA. A STATIONARY FRONT WAS ANALYZED
ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS FOUND ALONG THE YUCATAN COAST OF MEXICO INTO
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND EASTWARD OVER WESTERN CUBA. THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
DISPLACED INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC AND TROUGHING OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN...ALLOWING FOR MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE
WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN. THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT TRADE WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW A STRONG BREEZE THROUGH TUE MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED TRADE WIND SHOWERS OVER THE
ISLAND THIS MORNING. THE FLOW WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE
COLD FRONT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN APPROACHES THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE...PUMPING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. AS THE FRONT
PASSES N OF HISPANIOLA MON...LOOK FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
INCREASE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT STRETCHES ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
FORECAST WATERS TO CENTRAL FLORIDA...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH ALONG THE FRONT AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT OVER
THE BAHAMAS. THE POSITIVELY TILTED SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
SUPPORTING THIS FRONT WILL PHASE WITH A BROAD NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC BY MON MORNING...WEAKENING THE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT AS IT STRETCHES FROM NORTH
CENTRAL WATERS TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. FARTHER E...AN UPPER LOW
OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM A STRONGER UPPER LOW NEAR 29N25W. THE
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER JET LIES ON THE SE SIDE OF THIS
TROUGH...WITH THE JET MAX FOUND OVER EASTERN WATERS. THE REAR
RIGHT QUADRANT OF THIS JET MAX IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH NEAR THE COAST OF AFRICA. THIS CONVECTION IS
DESCRIBED IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION ABOVE. THE JET MAX
WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TRADE WINDS
OVER THE REGION WILL REMAIN A MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE THROUGH
TUE MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
SCHAUER


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