[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050516
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON MAY 05 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO
04N20W TO 02N28W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS
NEAR 02N28W AND CONTINUES ALONG 02N40W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF
BRAZIL NEAR 0N50W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE
N OF 01N BETWEEN 06W-14W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 02S-06N
BETWEEN 15W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WESTERLY-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
GULF IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
DEPICTING DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE. SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS AT THE
SURFACE BEING ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN
CENTRAL GULF NEAR 27N91W. STABLE DRY AIR ALOFT ALONG WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE TO FAVOR CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. WIND CONTINUES TO BE
ANTICYCLONIC IN THE RANGE OF 5-15 KT. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WHILE THE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES TO THE NE GULF...E-SE FLOW THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN SE WIND FLOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES INTO THE SW N ATLC WATERS. FAIR
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE ENTIRE GULF THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST ATLC SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 30N62W SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
THROUGH CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 21N78W TO 21N81W WHERE WITHOUT SUPPORT
ALOFT IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 20N86W TO
SOUTHERN BELIZE NEAR 16N88W. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE BEING
REPORTED ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA WHILE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE
THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN
COLOMBIA SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS WHICH EXTEND OFFSHORE S OF
11N BETWEEN 74W-80W. THE COLD FRONT HAS BEEN ADVECTING MOISTURE
TO HISPANIOLA WHICH ALONG MIDDLE LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING
LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ISLAND. SHALLOW MOIST AIR ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES MAY ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...DEEP LAYER DRY AIR SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE.
A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN...THUS
SUPPORTING TRADES OF 10-15 KT...EXCEPT WITHIN 120 NM OF THE
COLOMBIA COAST WHERE WINDS REACH A MAX OF 20 KT. THE STATIONARY
FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING WHILE THE COLD
PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL LIFT NE TO SW N ATLC WATERS.

...HISPANIOLA...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SW N ATLC WATERS TO CENTRAL CUBA
HAS BEEN ADVECTING MOISTURE TO HISPANIOLA WHICH ALONG MIDDLE
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION MAY INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS THE FRONT CONTINUES
TO MOVE E-NE ADVECTING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST ATLC SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 30N62W SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
THROUGH CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 21N78W TO 21N81W WHERE WITHOUT SUPPORT
ALOFT IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 20N86W TO
SOUTHERN BELIZE NEAR 16N88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM EAST OF THE FRONT N OF 23N. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT.
OTHERWISE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ATLC WATERS BEING ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 30N44W. DEEP
LAYER DRY AIR AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER
ACROSS THESE PORTIONS OF THE ATLC WATERS. THE COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT TOWARDS THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR

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