[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 021033
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI MAY 02 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO
06N13W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
05N13W TO 02N27W TO 01N40W THEN TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL
NEAR 02N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS
ARE FROM 01N-05N BETWEEN 12W-21W AND FROM 01S-05N W OF 22W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. AND A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLC COVERS THE GULF
WATERS. DUE TO MINIMUM UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF CONTINUES BEING ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY
FRONT FROM THE SW N ATLC NEAR 30N80W SW ACROSS FLORIDA TO ST
PETERSBURG TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 24N90W TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE NEAR 18N92W. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 23N86W INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 21N88W TO
17N90W. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN AS WELL AS
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE EASTERN GULF SUPPORT SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION E OF 92W WITH TSTMS NOTED FROM 24N-28N
BETWEEN 84W-92W. THE GULF MARINE CONDITIONS ARE DIVIDED BY THE
FRONT WITH NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 10-15 KT WEST OF THE
BOUNDARY AND SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF SIMILAR MAGNITUDE EAST
OF THE FRONT AND THE TROUGH. THE PORTION OF THE FRONT OVER THE
NE GULF IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A COLD FRONT LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE REMAINDER PORTION
STAYING NEARLY STATIONARY. THE WHOLE FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY OUT
OF THE BASIN BY SUN MORNING. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE EASTERN AND SW GULF THROUGHOUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE W ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE
BASIN W OF 68W WHILE AN ELONGATED TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC
EXTENDS SW TO COVER THE REMAINDER CARIBBEAN WATERS. THE RIDGE
ALOFT IS GENERATING DIFFLUENCE OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AS
WELL AS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN WHICH ALONG DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND BELIZE THAT EXTEND TO W OF 85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE S OF 14N W OF 80W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING DRY AIR
SUBSIDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND MUCH OF THE EASTERN BASIN WHICH
SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER FOR THE MOST PART. HOWEVER...CLUSTERS OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION HAS RELAXED THUS SUPPORTING
TRADES OF 10-15 KT EXCEPT S OF 17N BETWEEN 63W-78W. THE FRONT
OVER THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE FAR NW BASIN BY SUN
MORNING ENHANCING SHOWERS IN THIS REGION.

...HISPANIOLA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE ISLAND
THUS INHIBITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION AND FAVORING
FAIR WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL ISLAND. HOWEVER...PATCHES OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ARE SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI AND ADJACENT WATERS.
ACCORDING TO MODEL GUIDANCE...MAINLY FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
OVER THE SW N ATLC...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE SUPPORT HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 28N W OF 77W. A
STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM 30N80W SW ACROSS FLORIDA AND
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. PART OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION IS BEING ENHANCED BY THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
EXTENDING SW TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS A 1002 MB LOW
NEAR 41N34W AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ANALYZED TO 29N33W WHERE
IT CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE ALONG 24N38W TO 20N44W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT IS N OF 24N
BETWEEN 31W-34W. OTHERWISE...UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGING COVERS
THE WESTERN AND EASTERN ATLC THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR

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