[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020559
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI MAY 02 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO
06N16W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
05N17W TO 03N30W TO 01N40W THEN TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL
NEAR 01S46W. A CLUSTERS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS NOTED FROM
03N-05N BETWEEN 12W-16W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ELSEWHERE FROM 01N-05N W OF 17W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. AND A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLC COVERS THE GULF
WATERS. WITH NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THE FORMER COLD FRONT HAS
STALLED ACROSS THE BASIN FROM ST PETERSBURG FLORIDA TO THE
CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N90W TO A 1012 MB LOW OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE NEAR 19N93W. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 24N88W INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 21N89W TO
17N90W. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE BASIN AS WELL AS UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE SE GULF SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION E OF 94W WITH TSTMS NOTED S OF 27N BETWEEN 87W-92W.
THE GULF MARINE CONDITIONS ARE DIVIDED BY THE FRONT WITH NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 10-20 KT WEST OF THE BOUNDARY AND SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 10 KT EAST OF THE FRONT AND THE TROUGH.
OTHERWISE...A 1018 MB HIGH IS OVER THE FAR NW GULF WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT SW TO NE MEXICO WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
PORTION OF THE FRONT OVER THE NE GULF IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION
TO A COLD FRONT LATER THIS MORNING WITH THE REMAINDER PORTION
STAYING NEARLY STATIONARY. THE WHOLE FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY OUT
OF THE BASIN BY SUN MORNING. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE EASTERN AND SW GULF THROUGHOUT THAT TIME.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE W ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE
BASIN W OF 70W WHILE AN ELONGATED TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC
EXTENDS SW TO COVER THE REMAINDER CARIBBEAN WATERS. THE RIDGE
ALOFT IS GENERATING DIFFLUENCE OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AS
WELL AS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN TO SUPPORT A CLUSTER OF MODERATE
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE NORTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA EXTENDING TO W OF 85W...INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE S OF 19N W OF 83W. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY IS SHOWING DRY AIR SUBSIDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND MUCH
OF THE EASTERN BASIN WHICH SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER FOR THE MOST
PART. HOWEVER...CLUSTERS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ENHANCE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE...EASTERN DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AS WELL AS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION HAS RELAXED THUS SUPPORTING TRADES OF 10-15 KT
EXCEPT S OF 16N BETWEEN 66W-78W. THE FRONT OVER THE GULF IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE FAR NW BASIN BY SUN MORNING ENHANCING
SHOWERS IN THIS REGION.

...HISPANIOLA...
FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE ISLAND EXCEPT FOR THE EASTERN DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND ADJACENT WATERS TO INCLUDE THE MONA PASSAGE. A LOW
LEVEL CLUSTER OF MOISTURE SUPPORTS SHOWERS IN THE EXCEPTED
REGIONS WHILE DEEP LAYER DRY AIR FAVOR FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE.
ACCORDING TO MODEL GUIDANCE...MAINLY FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
OVER THE SW N ATLC...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS N OF
28N W OF 75W. DUE TO LACK OF SUPPORT IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVELS...A FORMER COLD FRONT IS NOW ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY
FRONT FROM 30N80W SW TO CAPE CANAVERAL ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
AND THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. PART OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION IS BEING SUPPORTED BY THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
EXTENDING SW TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS A 1002 MB LOW
NEAR 39N36W AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 30N34W TO
27N37W WHERE IT STARTS TO DISSIPATE ALONG 20N47W AND THEN
TRANSITIONS TO A SHEAR LINE ALONG 18N56W TO 20N66W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE N OF 26N BETWEEN 32W-36W.
OTHERWISE...UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE WESTERN AND
EASTERN ATLC THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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