[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020000
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU MAY 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO
05N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
05N21W TO 03N30W TO THE EQUATOR AT 38W THEN TO THE NORTHERN
COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 01S46W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 31W AND
36W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 03N W OF 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS A MAJORITY OF THE GULF THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF A SHARP MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN
GREAT PLAINS AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS
WERE IN THE 70-90 KT RANGE OVER THE FAR NE GULF. THE FLOW WAS
ADVECTING COPIUS AMOUNTS OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE OVER THE BASIN.
THE TROUGH WAS PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR A COLD FRONT WHICH EXTENDED FROM
NEAR CEDAR KEY FLORIDA TO 25N89W...WHICH BECAME STATIONARY AND
EXTENDED TO THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 18N93W. 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE
OVER SE TEXAS WAS BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT. MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG AND UP
TO 240 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT. PRECIPITATION WAS MORE STRATIFORM IN
NATURE N OF THE FRONT TO THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF COAST. THE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND TRIGGERING ANOTHER ROUND OF
POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER ALREADY SATURATED AREAS OVER THE FL
PANHANDLE ON FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN W OF 75W WITH BROAD
TROUGHING E OF 75W. TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
18N62W TO 14N75W. AN EMBEDDED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WAS LOCATED
JUST S OF PUERTO RICO. DEEP LAYERED SUBSIDENCE WAS NOTED WITHIN
THE TROUGH AXIS. A SOUTHWESTERLY TROPICAL JET IS LOCATED
OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 13N68W TO 14N58W. GENERALLY
FAIR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN THIS EVENING WITH ONLY ISOLATED
LOW TOPPED SHOWERS IN MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW.

...HISPANIOLA...
FAIR WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE ISLAND WITH WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATING A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR. THE SUBSIDENCE IS
EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD RIDGING ALOFT COVERS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC W OF ABOUT 63W
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS LOCATED FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO NEAR 32N70W.
FURTHER DOWNSTREAM A LARGE AND WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH THE AXIS
EXTENDING THROUGH 32N40W TO 23N50W TO 18N62W. THE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS
EXTENDED THROUGH 32N35W TO 21N46W...WHICH WEAKENED THROUGH 20N55W
TO 19N55W. THE FRONT DEGENERATED INTO A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING TO
20N69W. A TWO DEGREE WIDE BAND OF WEAKENING SHOWERS MARKED THE COLD FRONT.
THE JET MENTIONED ABOVE IN THE CARIBBEAN SECTION CONTINUES THROUGH
14N60W TO 17N50W TO 20N40W AND THEN GRADUALLY WEAKENS WITH
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATING SPEEDS AS HIGH AS 90 KNOTS W
OF 45W. A WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
IS LOCATED OVER THE NE PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
28N15W...MOVING NE ABOUT 10 KNOTS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
COBB


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