[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 021710
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI MAY 02 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO
06N13W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
06N13W TO 02N20W TO 02N33W TO 01N43W TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST
NEAR 02N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR
TO 5N BETWEEN 15W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1021 MB HIGH IS OVER S TEXAS NEAR 28N100W. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA AT 29N81W TO THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO AT 24N90W TO THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AT
19N93W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE E GULF WITHIN
60 NM OF THE FRONT E OF 90W. 15-20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF
THE FRONT. 10-15 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE S OF THE FRONT. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...SW FLOW IS OVER THE GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS
OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM S
FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 86W-
88W. FURTHER S...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER N COLOMBIA...PANAMA
...COSTA RICA...AND THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N. MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 70W.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS W OF 80W WHILE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE IS E OF 80W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO BE
OVER W CUBA...THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
DUE TO THE COLD FRONT.

...HISPANIOLA...

MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS
ALSO OVER THE ISLAND. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE COAST OF FLORIDA FROM 31N79W TO 29N81W
MOVING E. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
FRONT. A 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N52W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM
31N32W TO 24N36W TO 21N40W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM
OF THE FRONT. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS SUPPORTING THE FRONT
OFF FLORIDA...WHILE A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH N OF 20N E OF 50W
IS SUPPORTING THE E ATLANTIC FRONT. EXPECT BOTH FRONTS TO MOVE E
WITH PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA

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