[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 310523
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 7N12W AND CONTINUES ALONG 4N14W TO 1N18W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N21W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 25W.
ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS S OF THE EQUATOR AND E OF THE
PRIME MERIDIAN.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM S LOUISIANA OVER THE W GULF TO THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH A WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E GULF
EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE W FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE MID TO
UPPER CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 22N-30N BETWEEN
85W-92W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS DOMINATES THE GULF TONIGHT WITH A
1022 MB HIGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA. THIS IS LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER. SURFACE RIDGE WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE ATLC THROUGH TUE. MODERATE SE RETURN
FLOW WILL DEVELOP TUE AND INTENSIFY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
END OF THE WEEK.

CARIBBEAN...
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT.
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC DRAPES A COLD FRONT ACROSS CUBA
AT 31/0300 UTC NEAR 21N78W TO 20N83W WHERE IT DISSIPATES OVER
THE YUCATAN NEAR 20N97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND OVER CUBA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF
20N BETWEEN 77W-79W. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
SHOW DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF N OF 18N TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES FROM THE MONA
PASSAGE TO CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE FRONT IS ADVECTING
MOISTURE TO OVER HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 71W-78W.
THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL FURTHER DISSIPATE MON.
LOCALLY FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE NW
COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH THE WEEK.

HISPANIOLA...
MOISTURE ADVECTED OVER THE ISLAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT
OVER CUBA IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE W PORTION OF THE ISLAND W OF 71W LEAVING THE REMAINDER
OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC UNDER CLEAR SKIES. COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE E ACROSS THE ISLAND MON INTO TUE THEN DISSIPATE N OF PUERTO
RICO WED. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT WILL
LINGER AND CONTINUE TO GIVE THE ISLAND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THROUGH WED.

ATLANTIC...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FAR E CONUS AND W ATLC IS SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION AT 31/0300 UTC THROUGH 32N68W
CONTINUING ALONG 26N72W ACROSS THE BAHAMA ISLANDS TO OVER CUBA
INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 21N78W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM E OF THE FRONT.
THE ATLC BASIN BETWEEN 25W-65W IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 34N48W. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR E ATLC EXTENDING FROM 32N14W OVER THE
WESTERN CANARY ISLANDS TO 25N23W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 75
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND
FROM 32N63W TO WINDWARD PASSAGE MON FROM 32N57W TO HISPANIOLA
TUE THEN DISSIPATE N OF PUERTO RICO WED. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVING OFF THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA MON NIGHT
AND WILL SHIFT SLOWLY E ALONG 30N THROUGH THE WEEK.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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