[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 302348
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN MAR 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 7N12W AND CONTINUES TO 3N17. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 3N17W TO
THE EQUATOR NEAR 26W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4S38W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE S
OF THE EQUATOR FROM 2S-6S BETWEEN 18W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT HAS RECENTLY EXITED THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. A 1026
MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER MISSISSIPPI NEAR 33N90W. A SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS S FROM THE HIGH TO THE WESTERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE. 15 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SW TO W
WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE GULF. A 90-110 KT JETSTREAM IS OVER THE
NE GULF AND N FLORIDA. SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS EXTEND
FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO THE NE GULF. EXPECT THE SURFACE HIGH
TO MOVE TO THE NE GULF IN 24 HOURS WITH FAIR WEATHER.

CARIBBEAN...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM W CUBA AT 23N80W TO TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AT 21N87W TO 19N92W. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER THE REMAINDER OF
CUBA. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. A PATCH OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 13N-16N
BETWEEN 60W-66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO OVER CENTRAL HISPANIOLA. FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO NICARAGUA. VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER
THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT
TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL HISPANIOLA MOVING E. EXPECT MORE
SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC...

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N73W TO THE N BAHAMAS
AT 25N77W TO W CUBA AT 23N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT. A 1031 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 34N49W. A SHEAR LINE...THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD COLD
FRONT...EXTENDS FROM W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 30N17W TO 24N30W
TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AT 24N40W. IN THE TROPICS...A SURFACE
TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND EXTENDS FROM
19N58W TO 15N59W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT. FURTHER
E...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 24N58W WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA

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