[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 301805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN MAR 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 9N13W TO
5N15W AND 3N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N17W TO 2N23W...
THROUGH THE EQUATOR ALONG 27W...TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
4S39W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE SOUTH OF 3N BETWEEN 27W
AND 47W.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 70W...INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH FROM 24 HOURS AGO HAS MOVED TO A LINE
ALONG THE U.S.A. EAST COAST...FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
STATES...THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA AND FLORIDA...INTO
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT THAT IS PASSING THROUGH 32N74W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ACROSS GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...TO 25N80W...THROUGH THE FLORIDA
STRAITS TO 21N90W OFF THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO...CURVING TO 19N92W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS
WITHIN 180 NM TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE COLD FRONT...
FROM 22N IN CUBA NORTHEASTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN
70W AND 74W. RAINSHOWERS ALSO HAVE BEEN MOVING AND STILL ARE
MOVING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...TO THE SOUTH OF 26N BETWEEN 72W AND
80W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER MUCH OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO...EXCEPT FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...APPARENT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N72W 28N76W 27N83W 29N89W.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE
IS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO NORTHEASTERN
COASTAL MEXICO...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING
REPORTED AT THE SITES.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS. A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED IN
HARLINGEN. HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE NAVAL
AIR STATION IN KINGSVILLE...AT THE HOUSTON HOBBY AIRPORT...AND
AT THE GEORGE BUSH INTERCONTINENTAL AIRPORT IN HOUSTON. HIGH
CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...AT THE MOBILE ALABAMA
REGIONAL AIRPORT...AND AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN PENSACOLA
FLORIDA. A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED AT THE NAVAL AIR
STATION IN KEY WEST.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...THE COLD FRONT FROM 24N82W TO 21N90W. EXPECT NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE
WEST OF THE FRONT TO 90W.

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN NEAR 27N55W...TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 23N58W...TO GUADELOUPE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...TO
12N64W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG 61W/62W
FROM 19N TO 25N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE
FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 59W AND 62W.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE WEST
OF THE 27N55W 12N64W TROUGH. A MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
NICARAGUA INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS
COMPARATIVELY FLAT AND WEAK AT THE MOMENT.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE
TRADE WIND FLOW.

NO MONSOON TROUGH IS APPARENT IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. ANY
RAINSHOWERS THAT MAY BE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA PROBABLY ARE RELATED TO CLUSTERS OF LOW CLOUDS
THAT HAVE FORMED WITH TRADE WIND FLOW.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W. EXPECT
ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET
ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 72W AND 82W.

...HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN NEAR 27N55W...TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 23N58W...TO GUADELOUPE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...TO
12N64W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO
THE EAST OF 70W...PARTIALLY BECAUSE OF THE TROUGH AND PARTIALLY
IN THE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WITH SURFACE TRADE WIND FLOW. MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH.

CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN BARAHONA.
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN LA ROMANA. FEW LOW CLOUDS IN SANTO
DOMINGO...PUNTA CANA...SANTIAGO...AND IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL BE IN
THE EASTERN EXTREME OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT NORTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OR SO. A
TROUGH DEVELOPS FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW PREVAILS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE
FIRST 36 HOURS OR SO...BEING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF CENTRAL
AMERICA/WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. A
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LINE FROM THE BAHAMAS TO CUBA TO
HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA...AROUND A RIDGE THAT EXTENDS
FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO CUBA AND HISPANIOLA...FOR THE
FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY
WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH AN
INVERTED TROUGH.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT WAS
COVERING THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 9N TO 24N BETWEEN 40W AND 58W
ABOUT 24 HOURS AGO HAS BEEN OVERTAKEN BY THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 27N55W-TO-12N64W MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. ANY REMAINING CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM 24 HOURS AGO
IS FROM 13N TO 23N BETWEEN 46W AND 53W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR
IN SUBSIDENCE...APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...SURROUNDS THE
REMNANT CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 57W/58W
FROM 16N TO 23N. IT HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 20 KNOTS
DURING THE LAST 48 HOURS. IT HAS SHOWN UP WELL IN A LONG-TERM
LOOP OF SATELLITE IMAGERY. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS...
FROM 13N TO 23N BETWEEN 52W AND 60W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 35N26W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 32N28W TO 28N37W AND 27N40W.
THIS IS A TROUGH THAT HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA WHERE A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N14W TO 29N20W 26N30W
AND 26N41W. THE FRONT IS PART OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE LAST WEEK OR SO...AND THEN
SPENT 3 DAYS OR SO IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 31N17W 27N25W 25N32W 25N40W 27N44W 28N50W.

A 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 34N49W. A RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM THE 1031 MB HIGH CENTER THROUGH 32N58W TO 29N65W AND
23N70W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A COLD FRONT FROM 31N74W TO 25N80W. EXPECT
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10
FEET TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT. EXPECT ALSO SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE
NORTH OF 28N WITHIN 360 NM TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT. A SECOND
AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA
HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET TO THE EAST OF 55W. COLD FRONT FROM 31N74W
TO 25N80W. NW OF FRONT W TO NW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10
FT. N OF 28N WITHIN 360 NM E OF FRONT S TO SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT.
SEAS TO 9 FT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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