[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311038
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 13N17W AND CONTINUES ALONG 7N16W TO S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR
19W. THE ITCZ IS COMPLETELY S OF THE EQUATOR. SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS N OF 3N TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA E OF 2W ACROSS
THE PRIME MERIDIAN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 7W-11W
AND FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 14W-20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI BORDER OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH A WEAK UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE FAR E GULF EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT
TO GENERATE MID TO UPPER CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
FROM 23N-29N BETWEEN 83W-88W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS DOMINATES THE
GULF WITH A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 30N88W. THIS IS LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. SURFACE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT E TO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TONIGHT WITH RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING W TO EXTREME NE TEXAS THEN WILL SHIFT N TO ALONG
31N ON TUE THROUGH THU.

CARIBBEAN...
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT.
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC DRAPES A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT
ACROSS CUBA NEAR SANTA CLARA TO 20N82W WHERE A SHEAR LINE IS
ANALYZED TO THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N97W.
SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY STABLE AIR
ALOFT ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF N OF
18N TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO E
CUBA. THE FRONT IS ADVECTING MOISTURE TO OVER HISPANIOLA AND
JAMAICA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 71W-77W. THIS IS LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING. COLD FRONT WILL FURTHER DISSIPATE THROUGH TONIGHT.
LOCALLY FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE NW
COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH THE WEEK.

HISPANIOLA...
MOISTURE ADVECTED OVER THE ISLAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT
OVER CUBA IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W PORTION OF THE ISLAND W OF 71W LEAVING
THE REMAINDER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC UNDER CLEAR SKIES. COLD
FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES E ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH TUE
THEN DISSIPATE N OF PUERTO RICO ON WED. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT WILL LINGER AND CONTINUE TO GIVE THE
ISLAND SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WED.

ATLANTIC...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT
ENTERS THE REGION THROUGH 32N67W CONTINUING ALONG 26N71W ACROSS
THE BAHAMA ISLANDS TO OVER CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR SANTA
CLARA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60/75 NM E OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER
OF THE ATLC E OF THE FRONT IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 34N48W. COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND
FROM 32N61W TO HISPANIOLA TUE THEN DISSIPATE N OF PUERTO RICO
WED. SURFACE HIGH OVER THE N GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE OFF THE
GEORGIA COAST THIS EVENING AND SHIFT E TO 31N73W ON WED NIGHT
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W TO NE FLORIDA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

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