[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261034
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES..
W ATLC GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ASSOCIATED WITH A PAIR OF
FRONTS. THE LEADING FRONT EXTENDS AT 26/0900 UTC OVER BERMUDA
THEN ALONG 27N68W ACROSS THE BAHAMA ISLANDS CONTINUING ACROSS
CUBA INTO THE CARIBBEAN AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. GALE WARNING IS
SE OF THIS FRONT N OF 28N. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT EXTENDS AT
26/0900 UTC THROUGH 32N68W ALONG 27N74W ACROSS THE N BAHAMA
ISLANDS TO OVER FLORIDA NEAR WEST PALM BEACH WITH GALE WARNING W
OF THIS FRONT N OF 27N. GALE WARNINGS WILL SPREAD E AND SE THIS
MORNING BEFORE LIFTING NE AND OUT OF AREA THIS EVENING. PLEASE
SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA TONIGHT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD...THEN AGAIN THU NIGHT FOR
NEAR 12 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF PERIOD AGAIN FRI NIGHT. PLEASE
SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

E ATLC GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT N OF 30N E OF 13W ALONG THE
COAST OF MOROCCO AFRICA. PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 11N15W AND CONTINUES ALONG 7N16W TO 2N15W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 16W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N TO S
OF THE EQUATOR E OF 5W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND FROM 1N-3N
BETWEEN 8W-12W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
FROM 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 22W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FAR E CONUS AND W ATLC EXTENDS A
COLD FRONT AT 26/0900 UTC FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE SW GULF NEAR 21N90W
20N92W THEN INTO MEXICO NEAR 18N92W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
THE FAR NW GULF NEAR 27N95W TO INLAND OVER E TEXAS THEN AMPLIFY
N OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO
GENERATE SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS THAT ARE MOVING ACROSS TEXAS
INTO THE NW GULF N OF 24N W OF 95W. SCATTERED SHOWERS COVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE W GULF S OF 24N W OF 95W. SURFACE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILDS OVER THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH
OVER ILLINOIS. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF N OF
THE FRONT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...COOLER TEMPERATURES...AND
LOWER DEW POINTS. COLD FRONT OVER THE GULF IS BEGINNING TO
STALL. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
GULF BEHIND THE FRONT PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS
MOST OF THE GULF TODAY. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS
THE W GULF BY THU AND SPREAD E ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
BY FRI.

CARIBBEAN...
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN THIS
MORNING. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY
STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. THE W ATLC
COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS W CUBA NEAR 22N80W OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN TO OVER THE N YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W. A PRE-
FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CUBA NEAR
21N77W INTO THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 20N82W TO OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 19N88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NW OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO THE COLD FRONT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 10N
TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA AND PANAMA. THIS IS LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING.
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY ALONG ABOUT 20N THIS
EVENING THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THU. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
FRI INCREASING THE TRADE WINDS ACROSS ENTIRE REGION.

HISPANIOLA...
SKIES ARE CLEARING ACROSS MOST OF THE ISLAND WITH POSSIBLE
REMNANT SHOWER OVER SW DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THIS MORNING. WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRI. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
E EXTENDING FROM E OF THE ISLAND TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THU
BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY AND WEAKEN ALONG THE N COAST OF
HISPANIOLA AND THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NE YUCATAN
PENINSULA BY LATE THU. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY
FRI. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL INCREASE LATER
TODAY AND REMAIN THROUGH FRI BRINGING MORE SHOWERS TO THE ISLAND
TODAY THROUGH FRI.

ATLANTIC...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FAR E CONUS AND W ATLC DIPS S TO 28N
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION AT 26/0900 UTC
OVER BERMUDA THEN ALONG 27N68W ACROSS THE S BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR
23N75W THEN ACROSS CUBA 22N80W. A SURFACE TROUGH PRECEDES THIS
FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N61W TO 25N69W. SCATTERED TO HEAVY
SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. A SECOND
REINFORCING COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N68W ALONG
27N74W ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS TO OVER FLORIDA NEAR WEST
PALM BEACH. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
FRONTS. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 60W IS DOMINATED BY A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB HIGH NE OF THE AZORES.
THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA
MERGING WITH THE LEADING FRONT TODAY. THIS MERGED FRONT WILL
REACH FROM 32N52W ALONG 21N65W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE LATE THU.
WHERE IT WILL STALL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS N FRI.
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MOVE E CROSSING N OF AREA
THU AND FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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