[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261753
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED MAR 26 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS ENTER THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE EASTERN-MOST FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N64W TO
THE SE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N74W WITH GALE FORCE S TO SW WINDS N OF
29N EAST OF THE FRONT TO 61W. THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM 32N64W TO 28N70W TO 25N80W WITH GALE FORCE NW WINDS N OF
27N WEST OF THE FRONT TO 74W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO SETUP ACROSS THE SW
CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE
SE CONUS AND LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH
AMERICAN CONTINENT. GALE FORCE NE TO E WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
COMMENCE BY 27/0000 UTC. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE EASTERN ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS INLAND
NORTHWEST AFRICA THIS AFTERNOON. GALE FORCE N TO NE WINDS ARE
OCCURRING FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 10W-13W ALONG THE COAST OF
MOROCCO. SEE LATEST METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER WMO
HEADER FQNT50 LFPW.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N11W TO
01N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
01N18W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 20W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
S OF 04N BETWEEN 18W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
OVERALL VERY BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS NOTED ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE GULF BASIN THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS SUBTLE RIDGING IS MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF 28N94W. THIS ENERGY
ALOFT IS GENERATING EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND AN AREA OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF THAT CONTINUES TO MOVE
INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF AND COASTAL REGIONS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING
DATA INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING N
OF 21N W OF 90W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION LIES WITHIN THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB
HIGH CENTERED OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY. WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE AND
EXPECTED TO SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...E-SE WINDS
WILL PREVAIL IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT WITH THE STRONGER WINDS
LOCATED GENERALLY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS...W OF 90W...THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY...AND THEN SHIFT TO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GULF
THEREAFTER THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERED SOUTHERLY FLOW IS FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO EMERGE OFF THE
TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST EARLY SATURDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NEARLY ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INFLUENCES THE CARIBBEAN BASIN
THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE SOUTHERLY EXTENT OF A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIPS SOUTHWARD TO A BROAD BASE OVER THE SW
NORTH ATLC AND EXTENDS THE RESULTING SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM THE
SE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N74W TO 21N78W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA COAST
NEAR 20N87W. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS WEAKENING CONTINUES TO
TAKE PLACE AND THE FRONT IS BEGINNING TO BECOME STATIONARY. THE
FRONT REMAINS RELATIVELY PRECIPITATION-FREE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS BEING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
AIR ALONG WITH STRONGER NE WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING TRADE
WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT WITH THE USUAL SLIGHTLY
STRONGER...20 TO 25 KT WINDS EXPECTED IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO GALE
FORCE FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W BY TONIGHT. SKIES WILL
REMAIN FAIR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...EVENING...AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SKIES AND CONDITIONS REMAIN CLEAR AND DRY ACROSS
HISPANIOLA WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ANALYZED TO THE
NORTHWEST EXTENDING FROM 24N70W SW TO EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N78W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING TO THE SE OF THE COLD FRONT IN
THE ADJACENT NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS N OF 20N AND THIS ACTIVITY
IS LIKELY TO REMAIN N OF 20N THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A VIGOROUS AND NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THE
ASSOCIATED LOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CENTERED OFF THE
COAST OF NEW ENGLAND THAT SUPPORTS A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS MOVING
ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC THIS AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHEASTERN-MOST
FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM 30N64W SW TO THE SE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N74W
TO EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N78W AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. MOST
OF THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ALONG
AND EAST OF THIS FRONT WITHIN 210 NM N OF 27N AND WITHIN 120 NM
S OF 27N. THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS CONNECTED TO THE OCCLUDED
SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTH AND ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
32N64W. THE FRONT EXTENDS SW TO 28N70W TO OFFSHORE OF THE
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 25N80W. THE FRONT REMAINS FAIRLY
PRECIPITATION-FREE...HOWEVER A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS FROM
26/1500 UTC INDICATED STRONGER WINDS WITH AN AREA OF GALE FORCE
WINDS GENERALLY N OF 27N. FARTHER EAST...THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH CENTERED EAST OF THE AZORES
NEAR 38N21W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN

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