[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260546
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES..
W ATLC GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ASSOCIATED WITH A PAIR OF
FRONTS. THE LEADING FRONT EXTENDS AT 26/0300 UTC THROUGH 32N68W
ALONG 27N71W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS CONTINUING INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. GALE WARNING IS E OF THIS FRONT N OF 28N BETWEEN 63W-
66W. A SECOND NEWLY FORMED REINFORCING COLD FRONT EXTENDS AT
26/0300 UTC THROUGH 32N7W TO OVER FLORIDA NEAR MELBOURNE WITH
GALE WARNING W OF THIS FRONT N OF 30N BETWEEN 74W-80W. GALE
WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. PLEASE SEE THE
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT THU AFTERNOON WITHIN
90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

E ATLC GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT N OF 30N E OF 13W ALONG THE
COAST OF MOROCCO AFRICA. PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 11N15W AND CONTINUES ALONG 7N16W TO 4N18W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 21W THEN N OF THE
EQUATOR 33W S OF 1N THEN BACK S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 39. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO
S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 28W-47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 5N13W TO 3N17W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS AND W ATLC EXTENDS A COLD
FRONT AT 26/0300 UTC FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CUBA AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA INTO THE SW GULF NEAR 21N90W 21N93W THEN S INTO MEXICO
NEAR 18N93W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE S OF 23N. A SURFACE
RIDGE IS BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH
OVER MISSOURI. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF N OF
THE FRONT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. COLD
FRONT WILL EXIT THE GULF LATER TONIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE GULF BEHIND THE FRONT
PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF TONIGHT
AND WED. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE W GULF BY
THU AND SPREAD E ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BY FRI.

CARIBBEAN...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 73W ANCHORED IN
THE E PACIFIC REGION. THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN E OF 73W TO THE LESSER ANTILLES. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS MOST OF
THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE OVER
THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. THE W ATLC COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS W
CUBA NEAR 23N81W THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO OVER THE N
YUCATAN PENINSULA. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
W ATLC ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N78W INTO THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 21N83W
TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH. THE TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS
INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN UNDER CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
FURTHER INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG 20N BY WED. THE FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY BECOMES STATIONARY AND WEAKEN FROM WINDWARD PASSAGE TO
NE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY LATE THU. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI
INCREASING THE TRADE WINDS ACROSS ENTIRE REGION.

HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL PORTION OF THE ISLAND
TONIGHT. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRI. W ATLC
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E AND EXTEND JUST N OF THE ISLAND
STRETCHING FROM E OF THE ISLAND TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BEFORE
BECOMING STATIONARY AND WEAKEN ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA
AND THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY LATE
THU. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY FRI. MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY AND REMAIN
THROUGH FRI BRINGING MORE SHOWERS TO THE ISLAND WED INTO THE
WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS AND W ATLC DIPS S ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE W ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT
ENTERS THE REGION AT 26/0300 UTC NEAR 32N68W ALONG 27N71W ACROSS
THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N77W THEN ACROSS CUBA INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH PRECEDES THIS FRONT EXTENDING FROM
31N64W TO 26N68W. SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND
WITHIN 75 NM E OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 24N-28N. A SECOND
REINFORCING COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N74W AND
EXTENDS ALONG 29N77W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR
MELBOURNE. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
FRONTS. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC IS SUPPORTING A
REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N46W
ALONG 29N52W TO BEYOND 32N65W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF
50W IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB
HIGH NE OF THE AZORES. FAR W ATLC REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA MERGING WITH THE LEADING FRONT LATE
WED. THIS MERGED FRONT WILL REACH FROM 32N56W ALONG 22N65W TO
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE LATE THU. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE BY FRI. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MOVE E
CROSSING N OF AREA THU AND FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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