[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 252355
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE MAR 25 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES..
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW N ATLC FOR W TO NW WINDS
OF 30 TO 40 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 12 FT. THESE WINDS ARE THE
RESULT OF A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WELL N OF THE AREA BY LATE WED WITH GALE
CONDITIONS ENDING BY THEN. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 10N15W AND CONTINUES TO 0N20W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO
THE ITCZ AND CONTINUES TO 0N26W...THEN MEANDERS ALONG THE EQUATOR TO
THE COAST OF  SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
WAS NOTED FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 27W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE NE GULF OF
MEXICO WITH THE MAIN ENERGY FOCUSED ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST IN THE
FORM OF A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH CONTINUED TO SLIDE SWD OVER THE GULF E OF 90W.
THE TROUGH SUPPORTED A COLD FRONT WHICH EXTENDED FROM FORT
MYERS FLORIDA THROUGH 23N90W TO THE COATS OF MEXICO JUST N OF TAMPICO.
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO 23N85W.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED THAT THE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE FLORIDA STRAITS HAS MOVED TO THE SW COAST OF CUBA NEAR THE ISLE
OF YOUTH. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF N OF THE FRONT BEING ANCHORED BY TWO HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. NW TO N WINDS OF 20-30 KT WERE INDICATED NW OF
THE FRONT OVER THE GULF E OF 90W WITH WINDS TURNING MORE TO THE NE
OVER THE GULF W OF 90W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WERE NOTED WITHIN
120 NM OF THE FRONT AND ALSO BANKED UP ALONG THE LEE OF THE SIERRA MADRE
AND ELSEWHERE OVER THE GULF S OF 25N W OF 94W. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SE EXITING THE GULF WATERS LATER TONIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON WED WITH WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING.

CARIBBEAN...
A BROAD FLAT UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION COVERS THE
W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W AND PROVIDES W TO NW FLOW ALOFT. A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 68W. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS THE
ENTIRE BASIN WHICH IS SUPPORTING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE BASIN.
TRADE WINDS OF 15-20 KT PERSIST ACROSS ALL BUT THE NW CARIBBEAN WHERE
S TO SW WINDS OF 5-10 KT ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH OVER
CUBA AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL LATER TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN BY EARLY
WED MORNING THROUGH WED NIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI.

HISPANIOLA...
A REMNANT LOW LEVEL TROUGH N OF THE ISLAND LEFT A RESIDUAL MOIST
AIRMASS THAT CURRENTLY SUPPORTS LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MOUNTAIN RANGE. HOWEVER...DRY STABLE AIR
ALOFT INHIBITS THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE WED AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE
ISLAND THUS INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE SW N ATLC W OF 68W WITH THE MAIN
ENERGY FOCUSED WITH A VIGOROUS NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE OVER
THE CAROLINAS. THE TROUGH SUPPORTED A COLD FRONT WHICH EXTENDED FROM
A RAPIDLY DEEPENING 1000 MB LOW OVER THE SW N ATLC NEAR 32N75W. THE COLD
FRONT CROSSED THE E COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR STUART AND CONTINUED TO FORT
MYERS. A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE SAME LOW THROUGH 30N71W TO
27N66W. A SURFACE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDED FROM 25N73W TO THE FLORIDA
STRAITS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLUSTERS OF TSTMS FROM 26N-31N BETWEEN
65W-71W. FARTHER EAST...A SHARP TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 41W
N OF 30N SUPPORTED THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDED INTO THE AREA
TO NEAR 28N52W. THERE WAS NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.
THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF THE FRONT IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB HIGH NE OF THE AZORES NEAR 40N21W. THE AREA OF GALE FORCE
WINDS OVER THE SW N ATLC NOTED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
N OF THE AREA BY LATE TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
COBB


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