[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251801
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE MAR 25 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES..
A GALE WARNING IS FORECAST FOR THE SW N ATLC STARTING THIS
AFTERNOON. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE GENERATED BY A FRONTAL
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE AND ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WED
MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 8N13W AND CONTINUES ALONG 4N17W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 3N18W
AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N40W TO 0N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 7W-13W AND
FROM 3S-4N W OF 18W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE EASTERN CONUS AND PORTIONS OF THE
W ATLC W OF 70W WITH A BASE EXTENDING INTO THE NE GULF. THIS
TROUGH ALOFT IS SUPPORTING A FRONTAL SYSTEM ANCHORED BY A 1006
MB LOW OVER THE SW N ATLC FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THEN INTO THE GULF ALONG 27N82W TO
23N88W TO 19N96W. A SURFACE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N80W TO 24N84W TO
22N88W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS MOVING ACROSS
THE STRAITS WITHIN 70 NM S OF THE TROUGH AXIS. RAINSHOWERS ARE
ALSO OBSERVED WITHIN 100 NM S OF THE COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA. STRONG PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE REMAINDER GULF N
OF THE FRONT BEING ANCHORED BY THREE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS BROAD RIDGE IS PROVIDING FOR
THIS PORTION OF THE GULF NORTHERLY WIND FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 15-
25 KT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE EXITING THE GULF
WATERS TONIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
FRONT TODAY AND WED.

CARIBBEAN...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION COVERS THE
W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W AND PROVIDES NWELY FLOW ALOFT. A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS OVER THE REMAINDER CARIBBEAN. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS THE
ENTIRE BASIN WHICH IS SUPPORTING CLEAR SKIES. TRADE WINDS OF 15-
20 KT PERSIST ACROSS ALL BUT THE NW CARIBBEAN WHERE SOUTHERLY
WIND FLOW OF 5-10 KT DOMINATES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN BY EARLY
WED MORNING THROUGH WED NIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION WED NIGH THROUGH FRI.

HISPANIOLA...
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT N OF THE ISLAND LEFT A REMNANT MOIST
AIRMASS THAT CURRENTLY SUPPORT LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MOUNTAIN RANGE. HOWEVER...DRY STABLE AIR
ALOFT INHIBITS THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE WED AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE
ISLAND THUS INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE EASTERN CONUS AND PORTIONS OF THE
W ATLC W OF 70W SUPPORTING A FRONTAL SYSTEM ANCHORED BY A 1006
MB LOW OVER THE SW N ATLC NEAR 30N75W. FROM THE LOW A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS SW ALONG 29N70W THEN ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE
GULF TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SAME
LOW ALONG 29N71W TO 25N67W. A SURFACE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 25N75W TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR
24N80W TO 24N84W TO 22N88W. RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW
HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 68W-76W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 23N TO 30N W OF 67W. FARTHER EAST...A
DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE AREA OF DISCUSSION ALONG 30N50W TO
25N56W TO 22N61W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF THE FRONT IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB HIGH NE OF THE AZORES. THE
LOW WILL SHIFT NE AND DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA TODAY
THROUGH WED...WITH GALES DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE W
ATLC THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR

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