[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251035
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE MAR 25 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES..
A GALE WARNING IS FORECASTED FOR THE W ATLC THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH WED AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW THAT HAS DEVELOPED
AT 25/0600 UTC OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE TRAILING FRONT.
PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 11N15W AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N14W TO 3N17W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N22W THEN ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN
29W-41W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-5N
BETWEEN 7W-15W...FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 20W-
39W...AND WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 00N36W 2N41W TO 2N47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF EXTENDING FROM
APALACHICOLA FLORIDA TO NEAR KEY WEST. A REMNANT STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA AT 25/0900 UTC FROM
CAPE CANAVERAL TO TAMPA BAY TO A WEAK 1012 MB LOW NEAR 27N87W
CONTINUING ALONG 23N94W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR VERACRUZ.
SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE
E GULF FROM 24N-27N E OF 87W TO ACROSS FLORIDA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE NE GULF N OF 27N E OF 87W.
BROKEN/OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 275/300 NM OF LINE FROM 27N87W TO 24N95W AND S OF 27N W
OF 95W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA N OF 23N TO OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS E OF 83W.
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE GULF THIS MORNING AND
WILL MOVE QUICKLY SE MERGING WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY
ACROSS THE GULF MAINLY ACROSS SE THIS AFTERNOON. THE MERGED
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN EARLY
WED. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY
AND WED AND SHIFT NE OF AREA THU.

CARIBBEAN...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W ANCHORED IN
THE E PACIFIC REGION. THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL
ATLC DIPS S OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W TO THE LESSER
ANTILLES. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY
STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. SPEED CONVERGENCE
BETWEEN THE TRADE WIND FLOW AND THE WEAKER FLOW OVER THE N
CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 13N TO OVER PANAMA BETWEEN 75W-
79W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER CLEAR
SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS ALL BUT S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG 21N BY WED MORNING
THEN GRADUALLY STALL AND WEAKEN FROM WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NE
YUCATAN PENINSULA BY LATE THU. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION WED NIGH THROUGH FRI.

HISPANIOLA...
SKIES ARE CLEARING ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. NW TO
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THU. CLEAR SKIES WITH
AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TUE. MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE THEN INCREASE WED AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE ISLAND. THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE
ISLAND THROUGH THU BRINGING MORE SHOWERS TO THE ISLAND WED AND
THU.

ATLANTIC...
WEAK UPPER RIDGE COVERS W ATLC W OF 60W. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT AT 25/0900
UTC THAT EXTENDS INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH 32N53W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 26N63W TO 26N68W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY
ALONG 26N72W TO A 1011 MB LOW THAT DEVELOPED AT 25/0600 UTC. AT
25/0900 UTC THE LOW HAS DEEPENED TO 1008 MB AND IS CENTERED
NEAR 29N79W WITH A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUING INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL. SCATTERED TO HEAVY
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 24N-27W W OF 76W AND
WITHIN 90/120 NM S OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 70W-76W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF THE FRONT W
OF 68W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF THE FRONT IS DOMINATED BY
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB HIGH NE OF THE
AZORES. THE LOW WILL SHIFT NE AND DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS OUT OF THE
AREA TODAY THROUGH WED...WITH GALES DEVELOPING ACROSS NE
PORTIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND
FROM 31N73W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THIS EVENING AND FROM
32N61W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THU AFTERNOON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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