[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241037
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON MAR 24 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES..
A GALE WARNING IS FORECASTED FOR THE W ATLC TUE EVENING N OF 30N
W OF 76W IN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO
ENTER THE AREA TUE AFTERNOON. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 7N12W AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N18W TO 2N23W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N33W 1N41W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR
NEAR 46W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE
EQUATOR TO THE SW COAST OF AFRICA E OF 2W TO ACROSS THE PRIME
MERIDIAN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 10W-20W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 25W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN OVER THE GULF
GIVING THE GULF WATERS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA AT 24/0900 UTC FROM
DAYTONA BEACH TO BETWEEN TAMPA BAY AND CEDAR KEY ALONG 28N87W
26N94W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA FROM BOCA RATON TO NAPLES
THEN INTO THE GULF TO 23N83W. SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH AND THE
COLD FRONT. SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS ARE N OF FRONT E OF 88W
AND N OF A LINE FROM 28N88W TO THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS BORDER.
ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF N OF 25N E OF 90W
AND N OF 21N W OF 90W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT ANCHORED WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. COLD FRONT WILL
REACH FROM TAMPA BAY TO CENTRAL MEXICO LATER THIS MORNING AND
STALL THROUGH TONIGHT. A REINFORCING FRONT WILL ENTER THE GULF
TONIGHT AND MERGE WITH THE STALLED FRONT ACROSS SE GULF TUE
EVENING WITH THE MERGED FRONT MOVING INTO NW CARIBBEAN EARLY
WED. A SECOND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
TUE AND WED.

CARIBBEAN...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W
ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION S OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THE WEAK
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC DIPS S OVER THE NE
CARIBBEAN E OF 70W AND LEEWARD ISLANDS. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
BASIN. SPEED CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE TRADE WIND FLOW AND THE
WEAKER FLOW OVER THE N CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING BROKEN TO
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 12N TO
OVER PANAMA BETWEEN 75W-80W AND WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST OF
COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA S OF 12N. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND
WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TODAY THROUGH TUE NIGHT AS THE CENTRAL
ATLC RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE E ATLC. A COLD FRONT WILL SINK S ACROSS
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL EARLY WED MORNING AND STALL ALONG ABOUT 20N
LATE WED.

HISPANIOLA...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. NW TO
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WED. CLEAR SKIES WITH
AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TUE BEFORE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BRING MORE SHOWERS TO THE ISLAND ON WED.

ATLANTIC...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF MEXICO
EXTENDS OVER THE FAR W ATLC W OF 70W. A WEAK COLD FRONT AT
24/0900 UTC EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC THROUGH 32N70W AND CONTINUES
ALONG 29N78W THEN ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
DAYTONA BEACH. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC NEAR
29N75W ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR BOCA RATON.
SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH AND THE COLD FRONT. AN UPPER TROUGH
IS OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM 32N67W ALONG 28N68W TO 27N71W WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE
CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N45W AND EXTENDS TO 31N50W WHERE IT BECOMES
A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 28N55W TO 27N61W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH E OF 60W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 55W IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE THAT IS SPLIT BY THE ABOVE FRONT/TROUGH AND IS ANCHORED BY
A 1030 MB HIGH ABOUT 200 NM W OF THE AZORES. W ATLC COLD FRONT
WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA LATER THIS MORNING
WHERE IT WILL STALL THROUGH TUE MORNING. A SURFACE LOW WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER W ATLC EARLY TUE AND DEEPEN RAPIDLY
AS IT MOVES NE ACROSS THE W ATLC THROUGH THU...WITH GALES
EXPECTED TUE AND TUE NIGHT ACROSS N WATERS. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N73W TO S FLORIDA TUE NIGHT AND FROM
32N60W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE LATE WED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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