[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241803
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON MAR 24 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES..
A GALE WARNING IS FORECAST FOR THE W ATLC TUE EVENING WITHIN 240
NM SE QUADRANT OF A LOW PRES CENTER NEAR 30N73W. PLEASE SEE THE
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 5N9W AND CONTINUES ALONG 3N16W TO 2N23W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N35W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 48W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1S-4N BETWEEN 10W-16W AND
FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 16W-23W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 2S-5N
WEST OF 35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW N ATLC AND CONTINUES INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA
TO ST PETERSBURG AND THEN INTO THE EASTERN GULF TO 27N86W. FROM
THAT COORDINATE A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ALONG 26N94W TO
TAMPICO MEXICO AND THEN ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF SIERRA MADRE
MEXICO BEING SUPPORTED BY NEARLY WESTERLY FLOW IN THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER LEVELS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS SUPPORTING
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. A SURFACE TROUGH IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM
26N72W TO SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR 25N81W TO 25N86W IN THE SE GULF.
RADAR IMAGERY DEPICT SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN FLORIDA BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT AND THE SURFACE TROUGH
AXIS. IN TERMS OF WIND...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 10-15 KT IS N OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE RETURN FLOW OF SIMILAR MAGNITUDE
COVERS THE REMAINDER BASIN. THE COLD PORTION OF THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT.
A REINFORCING FRONT WILL ENTER THE GULF TONIGHT AND MERGE WITH
THE STALLED FRONT ACROSS SE GULF TUE EVENING WITH THE MERGED
FRONT MOVING INTO NW CARIBBEAN EARLY WED. A SECOND HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TUE AND WED.

CARIBBEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE BASIN WITH WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATING THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR WHICH SUBSIDENCE
HINDERS THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION AND CURRENTLY
SUPPORTS CLEAR SKIES. IN TERMS OF WINDS...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF
5-15 KT IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WHILE TRADES OF SIMILAR
MAGNITUDE DOMINATE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT ALONG THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE WINDS REACH MAGNITUDES IN THE RANGE OF
20-25 KT. A COLD FRONT WILL SINK S ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
EARLY WED MORNING AND STALL ALONG ABOUT 20N LATE WED.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR FROM THE UPPER TO THE LOWER
LEVELS SUPPRESS THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION AND SUSTAIN CLEAR
SKIES EXCEPT FOR SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS NEAR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC MOUNTAIN RANGE. AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH TUE BEFORE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRING MORE SHOWERS TO THE ISLAND ON WED.

ATLANTIC...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW N ATLC FROM 30N68W SW TO MELBOURNE FLORIDA
AND THEN WESTWARD TOWARDS THE EASTERN GULF. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 26N72W TO SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR
25N81W TO 25N86W IN THE SE GULF. ASSOCIATED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE N OF 24N W OF 68W. FARTHER EAST...A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 31N52W SW TO 22N60W WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN
140 NM W OF ITS AXIS N OF 26N. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF
THIS TROUGH AND N OF 13N IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH JUST SW OF THE AZORES. A SURFACE LOW
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER W ATLC EARLY TUE AND DEEPEN
RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES NE ACROSS THE W ATLC THROUGH THU...WITH
GALES EXPECTED TUE AND TUE NIGHT ACROSS N WATERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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