[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240543
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON MAR 24 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES..
A GALE WARNING IS FORECASTED FOR THE W ATLC TUE NIGHT N OF 30N W
OF 76W IN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER
THE AREA TUE EVENING. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 9N13W AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N19W TO 3N23W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N26W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 32W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N TO S OF
THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 8W-13W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 15W-23W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN OVER THE GULF
GIVING THE GULF WATERS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA AT 24/0300 UTC BETWEEN
SAINT AUGUSTINE AND CEDAR KEY ALONG 28N90W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO
NEAR 24N98W. SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ACROSS THE N GULF N OF 28N BETWEEN 84W-90W WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS DOTTING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF N OF 25N W OF 83W. A
SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT ANCHORED WELL N OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA. COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS W GULF WHILE
MOVING SE ACROSS E GULF AND REACH FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY TO NE
MEXICO NEAR 24N98W MON MORNING THEN STALLING THROUGH MON NIGHT.
A REINFORCING FRONT WILL ENTER THE GULF AND MERGE WITH THE
STALLED FRONT MON NIGHT. THE MERGED FRONT WILL PASS SE OF THE
GULF TUE NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT
LATE TUE AND WED.

CARIBBEAN...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W
ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION S OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THE WEAK
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC DIPS S OVER THE NE
CARIBBEAN E OF 70W AND LEEWARD ISLANDS. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
BASIN. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS
INLAND OVER W PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND W CUBA. SPEED
CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE TRADE WIND FLOW AND THE WEAKER FLOW OVER
THE N CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 14N TO OVER PANAMA BETWEEN 76W-
80W AND WITHIN 60/75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF W PANAMA...COSTA
RICA...AND NICARAGUA S OF 13N W OF 80W. THIS IS LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND
WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY MON THROUGH WED AS THE CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE
SHIFTS TO THE E ATLC. A COLD FRONT WILL SINK S ACROSS THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL EARLY WED MORNING THEN BEGIN TO DISSIPATE.

HISPANIOLA...
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS INLAND OVER
THE W PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TONIGHT. NW TO WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WED. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TUE BEFORE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD
OF THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
THE ISLAND WED.

ATLANTIC...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF MEXICO
EXTENDS OVER THE FAR W ATLC W OF 70W. A WEAK COLD FRONT AT
24/0300 UTC EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC FROM A 1015 MB LOW NEAR
32N78W ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR SAINT
AUGUSTINE. A EQUALLY WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OFF THE FLORIDA COAST
FROM 30N79W TO 25N80W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM E OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC
SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N70W ALONG
28N71W TO 26N73W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A
REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N43W AND
EXTENDS TO 30N53W WHERE IT BECOMES A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 27N59W
TO 28N63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH E OF 60W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 60W
IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE THAT IS SPLIT BY THE ABOVE
FRONT/TROUGH AND IS ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH ABOUT 400 NM W OF
THE AZORES AND A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 32N34W. W ATLC COLD FRONT
WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA MON WHERE IT WILL
STALL. A SECOND SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER W
ATLC EARLY TUE AND DEEPEN RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES NE ACROSS THE W
ATLC TUE AND WED...WITH GALES EXPECTED ACROSS N WATERS. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N73W TO S FLORIDA TUE
NIGHT AND FROM 32N60W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE LATE WED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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