[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 232346
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN MAR 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO
01N24W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
01N24W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 26W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-07N BETWEEN 04W-11W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 02N BETWEEN 37W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER MUCH OF
THE GULF BASIN THIS EVENING AS BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING REMAINS ANCHORED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL
AMERICA NEAR 17N91W. WHILE FAIRLY ZONAL...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES VERY WEAK MID-LEVEL ENERGY FOCUSED OVER LOUISIANA NEAR
29N90W AND THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGHING TO THE NORTH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N84W W-SW TO 29N90W TO THE SOUTHERN
TEXAS GULF COAST NEAR 27N97W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY AND
LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
OCCURRING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF GENERALLY N OF 27N...
INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN TEXAS...LOUISIANA...AND
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF IS UNDER INFLUENCE OF WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGHING WHICH
IS RESULTING IN AN OVERALL LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND REGIME. A
WEAK 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DISSIPATING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
LOOKING AHEAD...A STRONGER SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS THE GULF AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS IN THE SW
NORTH ATLC. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP QUICKLY N-NE ALONG
THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD WITH THE FRONT CLEARING THE GULF BASIN
BY LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. STRONG N-NE WINDS IN THE
RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KT WILL FOLLOW IN WAKE OF THE FRONT AS A
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WEST TO NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL WINDS PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS EVENING WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING
VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR OVER THE REGION. THE OVERALL STABILITY
AND LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS RESULTING IN MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS. THE ONLY AREA OF POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ALONG THE NICARAGUA...
COSTA RICA...AND WESTERN PANAMA COAST DUE TO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE. FINALLY...THE OTHER SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO NOTE
ACROSS THE BASIN IS STRONG TRADE WINDS OCCURRING ACROSS THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 15N BETWEEN 67W-78W. THESE TRADES
RANGE FROM 20 TO 25 KT AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
TUESDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...
VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER HISPANIOLA THIS EVENING RESULTING IS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
FAIR CONDITIONS. THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC W
OF 63W WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PROGRESSING EASTWARD OFF THE COAST OF THE U.S. THIS
EVENING. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SUPPORTS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHING NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 36N70W TO THE
CAROLINA COAST NEAR 34N78W AND THEN SW ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA
AND GEORGIA COAST. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM
31N74W TO THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR 26N77W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLOUDINESS IS ACROSS THE REGION N OF 26N WITH THESE FEATURES...
HOWEVER MUCH OF THE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING N OF
27N BETWEEN 64W-72W...AND N OF 32N W OF 72W. FARTHER EAST...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF 29N62W
THAT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE WESTERN EXTENT OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 32N44W TO 30N52W
THEN AS A SURFACE TROUGH TO 27N58W TO 27N62W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN TANDEM WITH THE MID-LEVEL
DYNAMICS SUPPORT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM
25N-32N BETWEEN 50W-62W. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION LARGELY
FALLS WITHIN A WEAKNESS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE
NE BY A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 37N40W AND A 1028 MB HIGH
CENTERED S-SE OF THE AZORES NEAR 33N25W. THE LATTER HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC THIS EVENING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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