[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201757
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU MAR 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...STRONG HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA IS
SUPPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM
11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W WITH SEAS REACHING 10 TO 12 FT.
THESE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
REGAIN GALE FORCE BY FRI MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA AND CROSSES INTO THE
TROPICAL ATLC THROUGH LIBERIA NEAR 5N9W CONTINUING TO 4N14W. THE
ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 3N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N30W 1N40W TO 0N49W.
SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE
NOTED FROM 0N-6N BETWEEN 9W AND 22W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 2S-1N W OF 42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES ALONG THE
EASTERN CONUS SW TO THE NORTHERN GULF SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THAT
TRANSITIONS TO A DISSIPATING BOUNDARY FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
NEAR 30N86W TO 27N94W TO NE MEXICO NEAR 25N97W. THE DISSIPATING
COLD FRONT WILL VANISH LATER TODAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WEAK RIDGING AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS
MAINTAINING FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE E AND SW GULF WATERS.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS NOTED OVER THE WESTERN GULF EXTENDING ALONG
26N93W TO 22N95W TO 18N95W. RAINSHOWERS ARE BEING REPORTED WEST
OF THE TROUGH INCLUDING THE EASTERN COAST OF MEXICO. LOOKING
AHEAD THROUGH FRIDAY...THE HIGH PRES NORTH OF THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLC OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE GULF WATERS
STARTING LATE NIGHT FRIDAY BETWEEN THE EXITING HIGH PRES AND A
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TEXAS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
HIGH PRES NORTH OF THE AREA IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE AREA WITH GALE FORCE WINDS
ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND ADJACENT WATERS. SEE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF
THESE WINDS IS RESULTING IN BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN...PARTICULARLY ALONG
THE COASTS FROM COLOMBIA TO PANAMA TO COSTA RICA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A RIDGE COVERS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN WHILE A
TROUGH DEEPEN FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE CARIBBEAN. THIS
UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ENTERING
THE NE BASIN ENHANCE SHOWERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE TAIL OF A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA ENHANCING SHOWERS THERE AND
OVER ADJACENT WATERS. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION INTO A COLD FRONT REACHING EASTERN CUBA FRI MORNING
AS HIGH PRESSURE EXIT THE SE CONUS AND ENTER THE W ATLC WATERS.

HISPANIOLA...
UPPER RIDGING AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE CONTINUE IN PLACE AND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OTHER THAN A FEW AFTERNOON
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...FAIR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE TAIL END OF A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS N OF
THE ISLAND LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...INCREASING THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SLIGHTLY.

ATLANTIC...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N54W TO 27N62W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS
INTO A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 25N71W TO NORTHERN CUBA NEAR
21N77W. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS ALLOWING THE FRONT TO SLOW AND
WEAKEN. HOWEVER...A REINFORCING PUSH WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO
CONTINUE EASTWARD FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY N OF 27N. OTHERWISE...A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH S OF THE AZORES COVERS
THE REMAINDER BASIN WHICH ALONG LOW LEVEL DRY AIR PROVIDES
OVERALL STABILITY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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