[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201031
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU MAR 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0915 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...STRONG HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA IS
ENHANCING TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. WINDS
ARE ALREADY REACHING 30 KT OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...AS NOTED
DRAINAGE EFFECTS OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA WILL ALLOW THESE WINDS TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE
OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA AND CROSSES INTO THE
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR ALONG THE COAST OF GUINEA NEAR 11N14W AND
CONTINUES TO 05N17W AND THEN TO 03N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS.
THE ITCZ CONTINUES SOUTHWEST TO 04S38W ALONG THE COAST OF
BRAZIL. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ AND MONSOON TROUGH AXES BETWEEN
15W AND 23W...AND BETWEEN 30W AND 35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO
LOUISIANA...THEN REMAINS STATIONARY ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. THE
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH
STATES TODAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BUT SOUTHERN STATIONARY PORTION OF THE
FRONT WILL WILL WASH OUT OVER THE NW GULF LATER THIS MORNING.
PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS IN THE NW AND N CENTRAL GULF INDICATE
SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN CLOUD COVER WITH CEILINGS
GREATER THAN 4K FT. WARM AND MOIST AIR FLOW ACROSS THE FRONT IS
SUSTAINING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE MOUTH OF
THE RIO GRANDE. WEAK RIDGING AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE NE GULF
IS MAINTAINING FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
WATERS. A WEAK TROUGH IS NOTED OVER THE SW GULF...WITH MODERATE
NE TO E FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SW GULF WATERS. MIXED
CLOUDINESS PERSISTS ALONG A LINGERING BOUNDARY PERSIST ACROSS
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND KEY WEST WEATHER RADAR IS SHOWING
PAINTING A STATIONARY LINE OF SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE
MIDDLE KEYS TO NEAR HAVANA. LOOKING AHEAD THROUGH FRIDAY...THE
HIGH PRES NORTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE WESTERN ATLC OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
WILL INCREASE OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF BETWEEN THE EXITING HIGH
PRES AND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TEXAS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
HIGH PRES NORTH OF THE AREA IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF THESE WINDS
IS RESULTING IN BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COASTS
FROM VENEZUELA TO COLOMBIA AND EASTERN PANAMA. AN EARLIER
ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN NOT FAR OFF THE THE COAST OF COLOMBIA IN AN AREA OF 25
TO 30 KT TRADE WIND FLOW WHERE WINDS TO GALE FORCE ARE EXPECTED
BY SUNRISE. FRESH E FLOW IS ALSO NOTED BY SHIP OBSERVATIONS
ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AS WELL. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS
LIMITED AS IS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE CARIBBEAN...AND
OTHER THAN IN THE AREA OF THE TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE IN THE
SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN AND WITHIN 120 NM DOWNWIND OF THE LEEWARD AND
WINDWARD ISLANDS...NO SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOTED OR
ANTICIPATED.

HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSED TO THE NE OF THE ISLAND YESTERDAY.
NO OTHER FEATURES ARE NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH UPPER
RIDGING IN PLACE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. OTHER THAN A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...FAIR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST INTO FRIDAY. THE TAIL END OF A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS N OF
THE ISLAND LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...INCREASING THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SLIGHTLY.

ATLANTIC...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N58W TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...THEN
AS A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. MULTI-LAYER
CLOUDINESS PERSISTS ALONG THE FRONT. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS
ALLOWING THE FRONT TO SLOW AND WEAKEN. A REINFORCING PUSH WILL
ALLOW THE FRONT TO CONTINUE EASTWARD FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY N OF
25N...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT AT THE SURFACE. HIGH
PRES WILL BUILD OFF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINTAINING
STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS WEST OF 50W
INTO THE WEEKEND. A SHORT WAVE MID TO UPPER FROM 31N50W TO THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS
ENOUGH LIFT ON THE SE SIDE OF THIS FEATURE TO SUPPORT AREAS OF
SHOWERS WITHIN 180 NM NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THESE SHOWERS
ARE MOVING EASTWARD AND REACHING AS FAR AS PUERTO RICO. FARTHER
EAST...A PERSISTENT UPPER LOW/TROUGH NEAR 27N35W IS FORMING A
REX BLOCK PATTERN WITH AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 37N27W.
UPPER DIVERGENCE ON THE SE SIDE OF THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN UNSETTLED WEATHER N OF 15N BETWEEN 20W AND 35W THROUGH
TODAY. THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NE
THROUGH FRI. ASSOCIATED 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR
32N29W WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW SOUTH OF
15N THROUGH FRIDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
CHRISTENSEN


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