[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU MAR 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...STRONG HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA IS
ENHANCING TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. WINDS
ARE ALREADY REACHING 30 KT OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...AS NOTED
IN A AN SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS FROM 02 UTC. LOCALIZED
DRAINAGE EFFECTS OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA WILL ALLOW THESE WINDS TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE
OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA AND CROSSES INTO THE
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR ALONG THE COAST OF GUINEA-BASSAU NEAR 11N15W
AND CONTINUES TO 05N17W AND THEN TO 03N20W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS. THE ITCZ CONTINUES SOUTHWEST TO 04S38W ALONG THE COAST
OF BRAZIL. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ AND MONSOON TROUGH AXES BETWEEN
15W AND 23W...AND BETWEEN 30W AND 35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO
LOUISIANA...THEN REMAINS STATIONARY ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. THE
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH
STATES TODAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BUT SOUTHERN STATIONARY PORTION OF THE
FRONT WILL WILL LARGELY WASH OUT OVER THE NW GULF THIS MORNING.
PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS IN THE NW AND N CENTRAL GULF INDICATE
SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN CLOUD COVER WITH CEILINGS
GREATER THAN 5K FT. WEAK RIDGING AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE NE
GULF IS MAINTAINING FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
WATERS. A WEAK TROUGH IS NOTED OVER THE SW GULF...WITH MODERATE
NE TO E FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SW GULF WATERS. MIXED
CLOUDINESS PERSISTS ALONG A LINGERING BOUNDARY PERSIST ACROSS
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...BUT KEY WEST WEATHER RADAR DOES NOT
SHOW ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE IS BOUNDARY AT THIS TIME.
LOOKING AHEAD THROUGH FRIDAY...THE HIGH PRES NORTH OF THE AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLC OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE FAR
WESTERN GULF BETWEEN THE EXITING HIGH PRES AND A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH TEXAS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
HIGH PRES NORTH OF THE AREA IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF THESE WINDS
IS RESULTING IN BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COASTS
FROM VENEZUELA TO COLOMBIA AND EASTERN PANAMA. AN EARLIER
ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN NOT FAR OFF THE THE COAST OF COLOMBIA IN AN AREA OF 25
TO 30 KT TRADE WIND FLOW WHERE WINDS TO GALE FORCE ARE EXPECTED
BY SUNRISE. FRESH E FLOW IS ALSO NOTED BY SHIP OBSERVATIONS
ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AS WELL. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS
LIMITED AS IS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE CARIBBEAN...AND
OTHER THAN IN THE AREA OF THE TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE IN THE
SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN AND WITHIN 120 NM DOWNWIND OF THE LEEWARD AND
WINDWARD ISLANDS...NO SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOTED OR
ANTICIPATED.

HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSED TO THE NE OF THE ISLAND YESTERDAY.
NO OTHER FEATURES ARE NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH UPPER
RIDGING IN PLACE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. OTHER THAN A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...FAIR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST INTO FRIDAY. THE TAIL END OF A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS N OF
THE ISLAND LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...INCREASING THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SLIGHTLY.


ATLANTIC...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N58W TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...THEN
AS A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. MULTI-LAYER
CLOUDINESS PERSISTS ALONG THE FRONT. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS
ALLOWING THE FRONT TO SLOW AND WEAKEN. A REINFORCING PUSH WILL
ALLOW THE FRONT TO CONTINUE EASTWARD FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY N OF
25N...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT AT THE SURFACE. HIGH
PRES WILL BUILD OFF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINTAINING
STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS WEST OF 50W
INTO THE WEEKEND. FARTHER EAST...AN SHORT WAVE MID TO UPPER
FROM 31N50W TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES EAST...COMING INTO
PHASE WITH A PERSISTENT UPPER LOW NEAR 27N35W. THESE FEATURES
WILL MAINTAIN UNSETTLED WEATHER N OF 15N BETWEEN 20W AND 35W
THROUGH FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
CHRISTENSEN


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