[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 192331
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY THU FOR THE S CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND
77W THEN AGAIN FROM LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI FROM 11N TO 13N
BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 6N10W AND CONTINUES TO 4N14W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 2N22W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 29W. SMALL
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM
2N TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN TO 7W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N TO S OF
THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 28W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER AND MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 19/2100 UTC
ENTERED THE GULF EXTENDING ALONG THE TEXAS COAST FROM GALVESTON
TO CORPUS CHRISTI THEN THROUGH A WEAK 1015 MB LOW JUST W OF
BROWNSVILLE CONTINUING OVER N MEXICO. THIS FRONT IS MOVING
THROUGH AN AREA OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR. HOWEVER SOME ISOLATED LOW
LEVEL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 23N-28N W OF 94W TO INLAND OVER
S TEXAS/NE MEXICO. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED NEAR COSTA
RICA COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF MEXICO WATERS. THE WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE NE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB
HIGH ALONG THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N85W. A
REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS OVER THE SE GULF EXTENDING FROM
THE W ATLC ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA NEAR 23N80W TO 23N85W THEN
DISSIPATES TO 22N89W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 25N TO
THE FRONT E OF 86W. BOTH FRONTS WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT. SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE GULF WILL WEAKEN ON SAT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW GULF LATE SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS N OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC ANCHORED OVER COSTA RICA. SATELLITE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
BASIN. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 17N-20N E OF 78W INCLUDING
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA.
SPEED CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE TRADE WIND FLOW AND THE WEAKER
FLOW OVER THE N CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 12N TO OVER PANAMA
BETWEEN 77W-80W. AFTERNOON SEABREEZE IS GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS INLAND OVER CUBA. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING. FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE EXCEPT A GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE IN THE NW
CARIBBEAN.

HISPANIOLA...
TRADE WINDS COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING ARE GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS HISPANIOLA THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
FAIR THROUGH FRI BEFORE A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA N OF
HISPANIOLA BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR SAT.

ATLANTIC...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC W
OF 65W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC DRAPES A COLD
FRONT INTO THE REGION AT 19/2100 UTC NEAR 32N58W AND EXTENDS
ALONG 26N68W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N76W WHERE IT BECOME NEAR
STATIONARY AS IT ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 23N80W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COLD FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB
HIGH NEAR 33N30W. N PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE CENTRAL ATLC WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY UNTIL FRI WHEN A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CLIP THE
W ATLC AND MERGE WITH THIS FRONT WHICH WILL DISSIPATE FROM 27N
TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY SAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

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