[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191754
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...A SURFACE RIDGE IN THE ATLC ANCHORED BY
A 1030 MB HIGH S OF THE AZORES EXTENDS INTO THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN TO GENERATE A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SUPPORT
WINDS TO GALE FORCE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THURSDAY. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER HEADER
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH LIBERIA AFRICA NEAR 6N11W AND
CONTINUES TO 4N17W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS ALONG 4N18W TO 0S30W TO THE
COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 2S42W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE NOTED FROM 6S-4N W OF 23W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY THREE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS N OF 40N
EXTENDS ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS INTO THE GULF AND CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE RETURN FLOW OF 5-10 KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORMERLY OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN IS NOW BEING
ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
NEAR 23N80W TO JUST N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N88W. AS
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTED NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE SE GULF IT
ADVECTED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN BASIN...HOWEVER
STRONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS SUPPRESS
ANY CONVECTION. WATER VAPOR AND SSMI TPW IMAGERY DEPICT DRY AIR
ALOFT AS WELL AS THE LOWER LEVELS ELSEWHERE IN THE GULF WHICH IS
SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. OTHERWISE...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SW TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO NW MEXICO SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS OF TEXAS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THEN THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...MODERATE TO FRESH E FLOW WILL SET UP SOUTH OF THE HIGH
PRES OVER THE SW GULF...BUT OTHERWISE LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS
WILL PREVAIL. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED...AND THERE
WILL BE LITTLE CHANCE FOR FOG OR SHOWERS.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE BASIN SUPPORTING DRY
AIR SUBSIDENCE AND OVERALL STABILITY. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS
SHOWED STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW OFF THE COAST OF VENEZUELA. SPEED
CONVERGENCE OF THE TRADE WIND FLOW IS CAUSING AREAS OF LOW LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N. AS HIGH PRES
CONTINUES TO BUILD N OF THE AREA...THIS TRADE WIND FLOW WILL
INCREASE THROUGH WED...WITH WINDS TO GALE FORCE EXPECTED OFF THE
MOUNTAINOUS COAST OF COLOMBIA THU MORNING WITH SEAS 8 TO 10 FT
OVER MUCH OF THE S CENTRAL GULF. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH
THU INTO FRI AS THE HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA SHIFTS EASTWARD
AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO.

...HISPANIOLA...
RIDGING IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS ALONG WITH DRY AIR
SUBSIDENCE SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. A FAIRLY DRY PATTERN ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WILL KEEP
RAINFALL LIMITED OVER HISPANIOLA THROUGH FRI...WITH ONLY A FEW
CLOUDS CLINGING TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

...ATLANTIC...
A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BETWEEN 55W-70W CONTINUES TO PUSH
EASTWARD...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FROM 30N61W SW TO
26N70W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 23N76W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS
TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND THEN INTO
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 100 NM EAST OF THE COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH S OF THE AZORES DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER ATLC WATERS E OF THE FRONT N OF 12N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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