[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 191102
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...STRONG HIGH PRES N OF THE CARIBBEAN
WILL SUPPORT WINDS TO GALE FORCE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY THU MORNING. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE THE OFFSHORE FORECAST UNDER HEADER
MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 09N12W TO 04N18W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ
WHICH CONTINUES TO 03S41W ALONG THE COAST OF BRAZIL. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF
ITCZ AXIS WEST OF 25W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

WEAK 1018 MB IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF
MEXICO THIS MORNING SOUTH OF PENSACOLA NEAR 29N87W...IN THE WAKE
OF A COLD FRONT THAT SWEPT ACROSS THE GULF YESTERDAY. FAIRLY
LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL EAST OF 90W IN THE VICINITY OF THE HIGH
PRES. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW DECKS OF CLOUDS COVER THE NE GULF
NEAR THE HIGH PRES...WITH SCATTERED LOW CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE N
CENTRAL AND NW GULF. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MULTILAYER CLOUDINESS IS
NOTED OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...BUT REGIONAL RADAR SITES DO
NOT SHOW ANY SHOWERS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. FARTHER WEST...AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES IS ROUNDING THE
BASE OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE N CENTRAL PLAINS
TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS IS SUPPORTING A 1004 MB SURFACE LOW
PRES AREA OVER N CENTRAL MEXICO. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE HIGH PRES OVER THE NE GULF AND THE LOW PRES OVER N CENTRAL
MEXICO IS RESULTING IN A SWATH OF MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF THIS MORNING...AS NOTED IN A
04 UTC ASCAT PASS OFF THE MEXICAN COAST. THIS FLOW IS
DIMINISHING HOWEVER AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH COAST
TEXAS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS OF
TEXAS LATER THIS MORNING...THEN WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...MODERATE TO FRESH E
FLOW WILL SET UP SOUTH OF THE HIGH PRES OVER THE SW GULF...BUT
OTHERWISE LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL. MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED...AND THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANCE FOR FOG
OR SHOWERS.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO CENTRAL
HONDURAS IS DRIFTING SLOWLY NW AS NOTED BY RECENT SHIP AND BUOY
OBSERVATIONS. EARLIER CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY SEEMS TO HAVE DIMINISHED OVERNIGHT. AN EARLIER ASCAT
PASS SHOWED STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW OFF THE COAST OF VENEZUELA.
SPEED CONVERGENCE OF THE TRADE WIND FLOW IS CAUSING AREAS OF LOW
TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS SW CARIBBEAN N OF EASTERN PANAMA.
AS HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA...THIS TRADE WIND FLOW WILL
INCREASE THROUGH WED...WITH WINDS TO GALE FORCE EXPECTED OFF THE
MOUNTAINOUS COAST OF COLOMBIA WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING WITH
SEAS 8 TO 10 FT OVER MUCH OF THE S CENTRAL GULF. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL DIMINISH THU INTO FRI AS THE HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA SHIFTS
EASTWARD AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO.

...HISPANIOLA...

ASIDE FROM SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE...A FAIRLY DRY PATTERN
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WILL KEEP RAINFALL LIMITED OVER
HISPANIOLA...WITH ONLY A FEW CLOUDS CLINGING TO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

...ATLANTIC...

A VIGOROUS MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NEAR BERMUDA CONTINUES TO
PUSH EASTWARD...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FROM 32N69W TO
CENTRAL CUBA. STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NOTED WITHIN
120 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 30N. IN FACT...RECENT WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS FROM BERMUDA SHOWED SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR GALE FORCE
WITH GUSTS TO 42 KT JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AREAS OF MULTILEVEL
CLOUDS ALONG WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE NOTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT
N OF 25N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W. THE DISTURBANCE IS LIFTING NE AND
WEAKENING...ALLOWING THE FRONT TO GRADUALLY STALL THROUGH LATE
IN THE WEEK ACROSS SOUTHERN BAHAMAS BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE BY
THE WEEKEND.

FARTHER EAST...A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N28W TO A
CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR 21N43W TO TRINIDAD. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CLOSED UPPER
LOW...BUT THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING AND THE LOW
SEEMS TO BE FILLING. FAIRLY DRY SUBSIDENT AIR IS NOTED IN THE
NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH...SUPPRESSING ANY
CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLC WATERS.

OVER THE EASTERN ATLC...STRONG RIDGING IS BUILDING ACROSS THE
AZORES...MAINTAINING FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW ALONG THE ITCZ.
MULTILEVEL CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE NOTED FROM 10N TO
20N BETWEEN 35W AND THE UPPER LOW NEAR 21N43W. OTHERWISE LITTLE
SIGNIFICANT SENSIBLE WEATHER IS NOTED N OF THE ITCZ.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
CHRISTENSEN


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