[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190600
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...STRONG HIGH PRES N OF THE CARIBBEAN
WILL SUPPORT WINDS TO GALE FORCE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA LATE
WED NIGHT AND EARLY THU MORNING. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE
SEE THE OFFSHORE FORECAST UNDER HEADER MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF LIBERIA
NEAR 07N11W TO 04N17W. THE ITCZ STARTS NEAR 04N17W AND CONTINUES
TO 02S40W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 17W AND 19W...AND
BETWEEN 26W AND 32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK 1018 MB IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF
MEXICO THIS MORNING NEAR 28N86W...IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
THAT SWEPT ACROSS THE GULF YESTERDAY. FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL
EAST OF 90W IN THE VICINITY OF THE HIGH PRES. BUOY OBSERVATIONS
AND DATA FROM A 0330 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOW MODERATE TO FRESH
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE WATERS WEST OF 90W. THE MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS SUPPORTING GENERALLY SCATTERED DECKS OF LOW
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF
WATERS. A FEW REMAINING HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOTED MOVING FROM
CENTRAL MEXICO TO SW FLORIDA. OTHERWISE THE GULF REMAINS MOSTLY
CLOUD FREE. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH
SE TEXAS...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SE AND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH LATE THU...STALLING FROM THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE BY THU
AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL
DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE EASTERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH
FRESH EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AS
STRONG HIGH PRES N OF THE FRONT SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SOUTHWARD...WITH LITTLE TO NO FOG ANTICIPATED OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA... THE WIND PATTERN IN A 0230 UTC ASCAT PASS WAS
INDICATIVE OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
CUBA TO NE HONDURAS. AREAS OF CLOUDS ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS
PERSIST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM HONDURAS TO WESTERN
CUBA. THE FRONT WILL START TO DISSIPATE THROUGH TODAY. THE ASCAT
DATA ALSO SHOW STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW OFF THE COAST OF
VENEZUELA. SPEED CONVERGENCE OF THE TRADE WIND FLOW IS CAUSING
AREAS OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS SW CARIBBEAN N OF
EASTERN PANAMA. AS HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA...THIS TRADE
WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE THROUGH WED...WITH WINDS TO GALE FORCE
EXPECTED OFF THE MOUNTAINOUS COAST OF COLOMBIA WED NIGHT INTO
THU MORNING WITH SEAS 8 TO 10 FT OVER MUCH OF THE S CENTRAL
GULF. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THU INTO FRI AS THE HIGH PRES
N OF THE AREA SHIFTS EASTWARD AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.

...HISPANIOLA...

ASIDE FROM SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE...A FAIRLY DRY PATTERN
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WILL KEEP RAINFALL LIMITED OVER
HISPANIOLA...WITH ONLY A FEW CLOUDS CLINGING TO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

...ATLANTIC... A VIGOROUS MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NEAR
BERMUDA CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT FROM 32N69W TO CENTRAL CUBA. AREAS OF MULTILEVEL CLOUDS
ALONG WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE NOTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF
25N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W. THE DISTURBANCE IS LIFTING NE AND
WEAKENING...ALLOWING THE FRONT TO GRADUALLY STALL THROUGH LATE
IN THE WEEK ACROSS SOUTHERN BAHAMAS BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE BY
THE WEEKEND.

FARTHER EAST...A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N28W TO A
CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR 21N43W TO TRINIDAD. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CLOSED UPPER
LOW...BUT THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING AND THE LOW
SEEMS TO BE FILLING. FAIRLY DRY SUBSIDENT AIR IS NOTED IN THE
NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH...SUPPRESSING ANY
CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLC WATERS.

OVER THE EASTERN ATLC...STRONG RIDGING IS BUILDING ACROSS THE
AZORES...MAINTAINING FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW ALONG THE ITCZ.
MULTILEVEL CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE NOTED FROM 10N TO
20N BETWEEN 35W AND THE UPPER LOW NEAR 21N43W. OTHERWISE LITTLE
SIGNIFICANT SENSIBLE WEATHER IS NOTED N OF THE ITCZ.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
CHRISTENSEN


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