[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 181757
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE MAR 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...ATLC GALE WARNING TO THE EAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND TO
THE WEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...

... A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N77W TO A 1002 MB LOW
PRESSURE THAT IS NEAR 29N79W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 26N80W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE NORTHWEST-TO-
NORTH WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO
THE WEST OF THE FRONT TO 80W. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25
KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST OF THE
FRONT. EXPECT SOUTHWESTERLY GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS 9
TO 11 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT TO 76W.
EXPECT ALSO SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS 8 TO 9 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF
THE FRONT TO 70W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 12N15W TO 10N18W. THE ITCZ STARTS NEAR 5N19W AND IT
CONTINUES TO 2N23W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 31W...TO 2S37W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 3N
TO 5N BETWEEN 11W AND 16W...AND WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE LINE 2N24W 1N27W 1N30W 1S34W 2S38W 2S45W 1S50W.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 70W...ACROSS
FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE REST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...

THE COLD FRONT FROM 24 HOURS AGO HAS MOVED ACROSS FLORIDA...
MOSTLY...AND IT COVERS THE AREA THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA...ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF FLORIDA...THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND
WESTERN CUBA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...TO THE CENTRAL COAST OF HONDURAS. A 1002 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 29.5N 79W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER BEYOND 32N76W. THE COLD FRONT
CONTINUES FROM THE LOW CENTER SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. GALE-FORCE WINDS
ACCOMPANY THE LOW CENTER AROUND IT. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL
FEATURE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE GALE-FORCE WINDS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...SCATTERED
STRONG FROM 30N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 70W AND 75W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM TO 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT
FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA STRAITS...INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS.

A COMPARATIVELY WEAK AND FLAT SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN NOW SPANS
THE GULF OF MEXICO...ESPECIALLY FROM THE COLD FRONT WESTWARD TO
90W. THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO
THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 90W...AND IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF
MEXICO...IS ORGANIZED AROUND A MIDDLE LATITUDE LOW PRESSURE AND
FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT COVERS THE U.S.A. FROM KANSAS TO OKLAHOMA...
TO TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO...INTO ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE HAS BUILT FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...INTO THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03
KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO
STATIONS/OIL PLATFORMS...KATP...KMDJ...KDLP...AND KIPN. CLEAR
SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE REST
OF THE SITES...AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE LATEST COLD FRONT.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES COVER THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS...AND
SOUTHERN/COASTAL LOUISIANA TO THE WEST OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE CLEARING ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF LAKE
PONTCHARTAIN. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS REMAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE CLEARING ALSO IN
THE COASTAL PLAINS OF MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND IN THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE FROM DESTIN WESTWARD. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS REMAIN
BETWEEN PERRY AND THE LINE FROM MARIANNA TO THE PANAMA CITY
METROPOLITAN AREA. THE LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE CLEARING A BIT
FOR SOME OF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST CITIES. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS
REMAIN FROM THE FORT MYERS METROPOLITAN AREA TO PUNTA GORDA...
AND IN THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM MARATHON KEY TO KEY WEST.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 82W/83W. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF 65W.

MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE
EAST OF 65W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...FROM A 21N44W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 16N54W. A MIDDLE LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS ABOUT 300 NM TO THE NORTH OF
PUERTO RICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 24N61W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 15N67W
IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE
TRADE WIND FLOW...MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF 78W...AND ALONG THE
COAST OF PANAMA TO THE WEST OF 80W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH DOES NOT EXIST IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
AT THIS MOMENT. ANY RAINSHOWERS THAT MAY BE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA ARE RELATED TO TRADE WIND FLOW AND
CLUSTERS OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET...FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 67W AND 76W. A
SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF A COLD FRONT FROM 20N83W TO
16N86W. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS
TO 8 FEET TO THE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS PASSING ACROSS
HISPANIOLA. THIS WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO A CARIBBEAN SEA 82W/83W
RIDGE. MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS HISPANIOLA
ALSO...RELATED TO AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS
ABOUT 300 NM TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO.

CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA AND IN LA ROMANA. FEW LOW
CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO...PUNTA CANA...SANTIAGO...AND IN
PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WITH A CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA. THE GFS-
MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL
BE ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 6 TO 12 HOURS OF THE 48
HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
ABOUT 375 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF HISPANIOLA. NORTHERLY WIND FLOW
WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE TIME...WITH AN EAST-TO-
WEST CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB
SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL START THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE WIND FLOW GRADUALLY WILL CHANGE TO EASTERLY...AND
THEN TO NORTHEASTERLY...AND FINALLY TO EASTERLY...DURING THE
COURSE OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE
SOUTHERN SIDE OF AN EAST-TO-WEST ATLANTIC OCEAN TO CARIBBEAN SEA
RIDGE.

...REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...
WITH A 21N44W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...SUPPORTS A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N43W TO
28N48W...TO A 1018 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 24N50W. A
SURFACE TROUGH CURVES AWAY FROM THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER...TO
22N49W AND TO 20N52W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS
THAT COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 38W AND
50W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N51W...TO 24N61W...THROUGH THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 15N67W IN THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N34W TO 26N38W 20N37W AND
12N40W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE EAST OF THE DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...THE GALE WIND WARNING THAT IS DESCRIBED IN
THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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