[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181248
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE MAR 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0915 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

ATLC GALE WARNING...1002 MB LOW PRES IS CENTERED OFF CAPE
CANAVERAL NEAR 29N80W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW PRES
THROUGH SW FLORIDA. WINDS TO GALE FORCE CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
MORNING N OF 30N WEST OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH SEAS REACHING 8
TO 10 FT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
OVER SENEGAL NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES TO 07N20W. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 03N20W TO 03N23W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITCZ AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS N FLORIDA IS
PROVIDING SUPPORT TO A DEEPENING 1002 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM THAT
HAS SHIFTED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA OVERNIGHT AND IS NOW CENTERED
OFF THE E COAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA NEAR 29N80W. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW PRES THROUGH SW
FLORIDA SOUTH OF NAPLES...ACROSS FLORIDA BAY TO KEY WEST THEN ON
TOWARD HAVANA CUBA. CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
NOTED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MULTI
VARIABLE CLOUDINESS COVERS MUCH OF THE NE GULF BEHIND THE FRONT.
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDINESS IS ALSO WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW PRES AND
SPREADING ACROSS THE N CENTRAL GULF AS WELL. THE LOW PRES WILL
LIFT OUT TO THE NE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS MORNING...WITH
THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST GULF WATERS. BUOY
OBSERVATIONS OVER THE WESTERN GULF INDICATE THAT STRONG WINDS
FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY ARE DIMINISHING QUICKLY AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT. LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS ALREADY
STARTING OVER THE TEXAS COAST. THE CLOUD COVER AND WINDS OVER
THE EASTERN GULF WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TODAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
EASTWARD BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT. LOOKING AHEAD...ANOTHER FRONT
WILL SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH MID
WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A COLD FRONT IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE NW CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING FROM THE ISLE OF YOUTH IN CUBA TO
THE CENTRAL COAST OF HONDURAS. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOTED JUST AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE CAY SAL
AREAS N OF CENTRAL CUBA TO SWAN ISLAND IN THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF
HONDURAS. A SCATTEROMETER PASS FROM EARLIER IN THE NIGHT
INDICATED STRONG NW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS. ELSEWHERE FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS PERSIST OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OFF THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHERE THE WINDS ARE
THE STRONGEST. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS ALONG WITH FAST
MOVING LOW TOPPED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
DOWNSTREAM OF THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD
ISLANDS. THE FRONT SHIFT EASTWARD AND STALL FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO
THE CENTRAL GULF OF HONDURAS TODAY BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE
WED...ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT TO DIMINISH.

HISPANIOLA...
A FEW CLOUDS COVER THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS OF
HISPANIOLA...BUT OTHERWISE SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE
ISLAND. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AND STABLE AIR
ALOFT HINDERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTION AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
ACROSS THE ISLAND FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FRONT THAT IS
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST WILL STALL AND BECOME DIFFUSE
THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE IT REACHES HISPANIOLA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE IS MOVING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA THIS
MORNING...PROVIDING SUPPORT TO A DEEPENING 1002 MB LOW PRES
SYSTEM THAT HAS SHIFTED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA OVERNIGHT AND IS
NOW CENTERED OFF THE E COAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA NEAR
29N80W. THE LOW WILL LIFT NE OF THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW PRES THROUGH SW
FLORIDA. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE EAST AND REACH FROM BERMUDA TO
CENTRAL CUBA BY EARLY WED. REPORTS FROM SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
BAHAMAS SHOW SOUTHERLY FLOW TO 30 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BRIEF
PULSES TO GALE FORCE CAN BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING N OF 30N BOTH
AHEAD AND BEHIND THE LOW PRES AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS THEY MOVE
RAPIDLY TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST WITHIN
240 NM OF THE W OF THE FRONT THROUGH MID WEEK AS IT SHIFTS EAST.
FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE N CENTRAL
ATLC..CROSSING 32N NEAR 43W...THEN ON TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
THIS IS SUPPORTING A VERY WEAK 1018 MB SURFACE LOW PRES AREA
CENTERED NEAR 24N49W...WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS NOTED WITHIN 180
NM IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. THE UPPER TROUGH IS
SUPPORTING A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT FROM 32N42W TO THE LOW
PRES...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG 11N50W TO 21N54W. A
BROAD SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE ATLC NEAR
41N20W...MAINTAINING FRESH TRADES S OF 27N W OF 35W.


FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
CHRISTENSEN


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net