[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 202349
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU MAR 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN LATE TONIGHT AND
EXTEND THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON FOR THE S CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 13N
BETWEEN 75W AND 79W. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 7N12W AND CONTINUES TO 3N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 23W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 9W-
16W INCLUDING THE SW COAST OF AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 20W-
27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS SWEEPING ACROSS THE NE CONUS INTO THE NW ATLC
TO THE N GULF COAST SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS ACROSS GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE GULF
NEAR PANAMA CITY CONTINUING TO 28N89W. THIS FRONT IS MOVING
THROUGH AN AREA OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR AND SO NO SHOWERS. THE
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER PANAMA COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AND
GULF OF MEXICO WATERS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ACROSS THE S
CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 24N86W 21N93W TO 18N94W WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITHIN 45/60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. A SURFACE
RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE W GULF ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1023 MB
HIGHS OVER NE TEXAS AND NW MISSISSIPPI. A LINE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS IS IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA EXTENDING FROM 25N80W TO
CUBA NEAR 23N81W. LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE FAR W GULF FROM 21N-25N W OF 96W AND ARE BANKING ALONG
THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. SURFACE RIDGE WILL
PERSIST THEN WEAKEN ON SAT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
ENTER THE NW GULF LATE SUN.

CARIBBEAN...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS N OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC ANCHORED OVER E PANAMA. SATELLITE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
BASIN. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC TO
OVER CUBA PROVIDING ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COUPLED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER CUBA AND WITHIN 45 NM ALONG
THE S COAST. TRADE WINDS COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING ARE
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS INLAND OVER PUERTO RICO...
HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND IN THE MONA PASSAGE. SPEED
CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE TRADE WIND FLOW AND THE WEAKER FLOW OVER
THE N CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 14N TO OVER PANAMA BETWEEN 76W-
80W AND FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 81W-85W. THIS IS LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING. FRESH
TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHEST WINDS OCCURRING NEAR
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE
EXCEPT A GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN.

HISPANIOLA...
TRADE WINDS COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING ARE GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS HISPANIOLA THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY FAIR THROUGH FRI BEFORE A FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE AREA. THIS
WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN.

ATLANTIC...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC W
OF 67W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE N/CENTRAL ATLC DRAPES A COLD
FRONT INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N51W AND EXTENDS ALONG 28N58W TO
28N63W WHERE IT BECOME NEAR STATIONARY ALONG 27N67W TO THE
BAHAMAS NEAR 24N74W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO OVER CUBA NEAR
22N78W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT E OF THE
BAHAMAS. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 32N31W. A WEAKER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE W ATLC AND CLIP THE N PORTION OF
THE AREA FRI MERGING WITH THE CURRENT FRONT WHICH WILL THEN
DISSIPATE FROM 32N62W TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS BY SAT. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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