[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 172349
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON MAR 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 17/0000 UTC FOR
THE SW GULF S OF 23N BETWEEN 92W-95W. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 11N15W AND CONTINUES ALONG 10N17W 5N17W TO 3N20W WHERE THE
ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N25W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR
31W. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF
LINE FROM 3N13W TO 2N16W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITHIN
75/90 NM OF LINE FROM 5N12W TO 2N18W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 43-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO TO ACROSS S
TEXAS AND MEXICO. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE GULF EXTENDING AT
17/2100 UTC FROM A 1004 MB LOW NEAR 28N84W ALONG 24N86W TO OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W OVER BELIZE TO CENTRAL
GUATEMALA NEAR 16N90W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BETWEEN HOMOSASSA AND DAYTONA
BEACH. SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 60/75 NM S OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND E OF THE COLD
FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE E GULF E OF
87W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W GULF WITH A 1017 MB HIGH
ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR TUXPAN. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT N OF 25N W OF 90W. SKIES
ARE CLEARING OVER THE FAR W GULF N OF 22N W OF 95W. COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE E AND BE FROM TAMPA BAY TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL EARLY
TONIGHT THEN THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS ON TUE. SURFACE RIDGE
WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE GULF AND E OF AREA ON WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER MOST THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING A
RIDGE AXIS THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE OVER THE W ATLC. THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC CLIPS THE FAR E CARIBBEAN E
OF 66W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W OVER BELIZE TO CENTRAL GUATEMALA
NEAR 16N90W GENERATING SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT OVER THE FAR NW
CARIBBEAN WATERS N OF 16N. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS
TONIGHT STALLING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF
HONDURAS ON TUE. REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL DRIFT W AND
DISSIPATE ON WED. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE THROUGH WED.

HISPANIOLA...
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS HISPANIOLA THIS EVENING WITH SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPING UP DUE TO THE TRADE WINDS. SATELLITE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT HINDERING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION AND WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ISLAND FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ACROSS THE W ATLC TO BEYOND 32N65W. A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS FLORIDA
NEAR DAYTONA BEACH TO 31N77W WITH SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS N OF LINE FROM MELBOURNE FLORIDA TO
BEYOND 32N75W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IS
SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N42W ALONG
28N47W TO A 1016 MB LOW NEAR 25N49W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING ALONG 11N50W TO 21N54W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE FRONT/TROUGH N OF 22N.
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA E OF 70W WITH WEAKNESSES
IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITIES OF THE ABOVE FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH
AND IS ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH NW OF THE AZORES AND A 1031 MB
HIGH NE OF THE AZORES. A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE NE
FLORIDA COAST EARLY TONIGHT AND RACE NE OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT OFF THE FLORIDA COAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL
REACH FROM 31N74W TO THE CAY SAL BANK ON TUE. THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS BERMUDA ON TUE NIGHT WHILE
THE SOUTHERN SEGMENT OF THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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