[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180601
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE MAR 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0915 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 11N15W AND CONTINUES ALONG 10N17W 5N17W TO 3N20W WHERE THE
ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N25W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR
31W. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF
LINE FROM 3N13W TO 2N16W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITHIN
75/90 NM OF LINE FROM 5N12W TO 2N18W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 43-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH
SOUTH TEXAS IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH STATES AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM A 1004 MB LOW NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA TO THE WESTERN TIP
OF CUBA. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS FROM WESTERN
CUBA ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO SW
FLORIDA. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY
SINCE THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER DYNAMICS OVER LIFT NE THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS. MULTI VARIABLE CLOUDINESS COVERS MUCH OF THE NE
GULF BEHIND THE FRONT. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDINESS IS ALSO WRAPPING
AROUND THE LOW PRES AND SPREADING ACROSS THE N CENTRAL GULF AS
WELL. THE LOW PRES WILL LIFT OUT TO THE NE ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA THIS MORNING...WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST GULF WATERS. BUOY OBSERVATIONS OVER THE WESTERN GULF
INDICATE THAT STRONG WINDS FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY ARE
DIMINISHING QUICKLY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS ALREADY STARTING OVER THE TEXAS COAST.
THE CLOUD COVER AND WINDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL DIMINISH
THROUGH TODAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS EASTWARD BEHIND THE EXITING
FRONT. LOOKING AHEAD...ANOTHER FRONT WILL SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH MID WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A COLD FRONT IS MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. A SCATTEROMETER
PASS FROM 03 UTC INDICATED STRONG NW WINDS OVER THE GULF OF
HONDURAS BEHIND THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT MOVED INTO WESTERN CUBA AND THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS NEAR THE ISLE OF YOUTH...BUT THIS HAS STARTED
TO DISSIPATE QUICKLY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. ELSEWHERE
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
AN ALTIMETER PASS FROM AROUND 00 UTC INDICATED SEAS TO 8 FT OVER
THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHERE THE WINDS ARE THE STRONGEST.
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS ALONG WITH FAST MOVING LOW TOPPED
SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN DOWNSTREAM OF THE
HIGHER PEAKS OF THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE FRONT
SHIFT EASTWARD AND STALL FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE CENTRAL GULF
OF HONDURAS TODAY BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE WED...ALLOWING WINDS
AND SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT TO DIMINISH.

HISPANIOLA...

A FEW CLOUDS COVER THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS OF HISPANIOLA...BUT
OTHERWISE SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND. SATELLITE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT HINDERING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION AND WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ISLAND FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A VIGOROUS UPPER DISTURBANCE IS MOVING FROM THE DEEP SOUTH
STATES TO THE CAROLINAS...AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
FLORIDA INTO THE WATERS N OF THE BAHAMAS THIS MORNING. SHOWERS
AN THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM AS FORCING ALOFT INTERACTS WITH THE
FRONT AS IT MOVES OVER THE GULF STREAM. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE N CENTRAL ATLC..CROSSING 32N NEAR
43W...THEN ON TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. AN UPPER RIDGE FROM THE
CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
ACROSS THE W ATLC TO BEYOND 32N65W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH TO
31N77W WITH SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF LINE FROM MELBOURNE FLORIDA TO BEYOND 32N75W.
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY
FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N42W ALONG 28N47W TO A 1016 MB LOW
NEAR 25N49W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG 11N50W TO
21N54W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180
NM E OF THE FRONT/TROUGH N OF 22N. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS
THE AREA E OF 70W WITH WEAKNESSES IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITIES OF
THE ABOVE FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH AND IS ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH
NW OF THE AZORES AND A 1031 MB HIGH NE OF THE AZORES. A SURFACE
LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST EARLY TONIGHT AND RACE NE
OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT OFF THE FLORIDA
COAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N74W TO THE CAY SAL BANK
ON TUE. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS BERMUDA
ON TUE NIGHT WHILE THE SOUTHERN SEGMENT OF THE FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
CHRISTENSEN


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