[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 171752
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON MAR 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING....COLD FRONT FROM 30N87W TO
19N93W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE NORTH WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10
FEET FROM 21N TO 25N TO THE WEST OF 95W. EXPECT NORTHWEST TO
NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET ELSEWHERE
TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. EXPECT ALSO SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS
20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 24N TO
THE EAST OF THE FRONT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...
MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 11N15W...TO 6N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N17W TO
1N20W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 23W...AND THEN ALONG THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 23W AND 29W...TO 1S32W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 1S TO 1N BETWEEN 7W AND 9W...FROM 3N TO 5N
BETWEEN 9W AND 14W...FROM THE EQUATOR TO 1S WITHIN 30 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 19W...FROM 2N TO 3N BETWEEN 20W AND 23W...AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 47W AND 49W. SCATTERED STRONG
FROM 1S TO 2N BETWEEN 37W AND 41W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE COLD FRONT THAT SWEPT ACROSS TEXAS 24 HOURS AGO HAS MOVED
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. IT PASSES THROUGH THE EXTREME
WESTERN PART OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A
SECOND FEATURE IS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 31N79W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO A GULF OF MEXICO 1002 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 27N87W...TO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...INTO THE NORTHERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS SUPPORTING THE SURFACE
FEATURES PASSES THROUGH LOUISIANA...INTO THE TEXAS GULF COAST/
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TOWARD CENTRAL
MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...APPARENT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...TO 25N93W...BEYOND
22N100W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 30N TO
32N BETWEEN 75W AND 79W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND FROM 25N TO
28N BETWEEN 82W AND 86W IN FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT GULF OF
MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO TO 25N
BETWEEN 85W AND 88W.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN ABOUT 3 HOURS OR SO
IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING ALONG THE
TEXAS COAST...INTO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 19N96W. PLEASE READ THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03
KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER MOST OF THE PLATFORMS...EXCEPT FOR
CLEARING SKIES AT KMZG AND KBBF ALONG THE TEXAS COAST...AND AT
KGUL. THE VISIBILITY AT KATP IS 3 MILES OR LESS WITH HAZE AND A
LOW CLOUD CEILING.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

CLEAR SKIES/CLEARING SKIES COVER THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS FROM
PALACIOS SOUTHWARD. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TEXAS COASTAL
PLAINS FROM PALACIOS NORTHWARD...COASTAL LOUISIANA...INTO
MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAIN COVER
FLORIDA FROM PERRY WESTWARD...AND FROM BROOKSVILLE TO THE TAMPA
METROPOLITAN AREA TO SARASOTA. A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS
BEING OBSERVED IN PUNTA GORDA. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS
AND LIGHT RAIN ARE BEING REPORTED IN PARTS OF THE FORT MYERS
METROPOLITAN AREA.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 81W/82W. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS ALONG THE BORDER OF NORTHERN NICARAGUA AND
EASTERN HONDURAS. A SECOND MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS ON TOP OF THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN HAITI AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE
TRADE WIND FLOW. SOME OF THE COMPARATIVELY MORE PROMINENT AREAS
OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE...TO THE SOUTH OF 15N
TO THE EAST OF 71W...ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO THE WEST
OF 70W...AND ACROSS CUBA TO THE EAST OF 80W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH DOES NOT EXIST IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
AT THIS MOMENT. ANY RAINSHOWERS THAT MAY BE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA ARE RELATED TO TRADE WIND FLOW AND
CLUSTERS OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS...EXCEPT
25 TO 30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9
FEET...FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W. A SECOND AREA OF
CONCERN CONSISTS OF SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET TO THE WEST OF 84W.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS PASSING ACROSS
HISPANIOLA. THIS WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO A CARIBBEAN SEA 81W/82W
RIDGE. MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS HISPANIOLA
ALSO...RELATED TO AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS IN
THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN HAITI AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...A
LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED IN SANTO DOMINGO.
SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA. FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE IN
PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS COVER SANTIAGO AND PUERTO
PLATA. FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA. FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING
OBSERVED IN PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WITH A CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA. THE GFS-
MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL
BE ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE 48 HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD. THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER STARTS OVER
THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN HAITI AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS... AND IT MOVES TO A POSITION THAT IS ABOUT 360 NM TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF HISPANIOLA. NORTHERLY WIND FLOW
WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH AN EAST-TO-WEST CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER WILL BE ABOUT 460 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF
HISPANIOLA AT THE START OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 24
HOURS. SOUTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA
FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BEING ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE
OF AN EAST-TO-WEST ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N42W TO
28N47W...TO A 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N48W.
A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 26N48W TO 24N54W AND 22N61W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 90 NM TO 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE 32N42W 26N47W
21N51W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N53W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO
28N58W...TO 22N67W...TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N28W TO 26N35W AND 22N43W.
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
EAST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND
SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 77W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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