[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171050
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 29N90W S-SW TO 20N94W THEN SW TO THE
MEXICO COAST NEAR 19N96W. NORTHERLY GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE
OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FROM 21N
TO 26N WEST OF 95W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N21W TO
THE EQUATOR NEAR 36W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 05N
BETWEEN 03W-09W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF
02N BETWEEN 33W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A POSITIVELY-TILTED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SW TO OVER EASTERN TEXAS
AND THEN TO A BASE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA NEAR
23N108W. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A 1003 MB LOW CENTERED OVER
NORTHWESTERN GEORGIA WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING S-
SW TO THE GULF COAST NEAR 30N89W TO 20N94W THEN TO THE MEXICO
COAST NEAR 19N96W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA
INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING W OF
90W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM THE BIG BEND
REGION OF FLORIDA NEAR 30N83W TO 25N89W WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED TSTMS OCCURRING OVER THE NE GULF N OF 25N BETWEEN
81W-90W. THE LOW ACROSS ALABAMA IS FORECAST REMAIN STATIONARY
ACROSS NORTHERN GEORGIA MONDAY WHILE CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE EASTERN GULF. A LOW IS
EXPECTED TO FORM AND THEN RAPIDLY MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE SW
NORTH ATLC BY EARLY TUESDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AREA IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR EAST
OF THE BASIN BY TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED ACROSS THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL GULF WATERS AND GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE DAY ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING OVER THE CARIBBEAN
BASIN. THIS OVERALL PATTERN IS RESULTING IN VERY TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE WITH ONLY A COUPLE AREAS OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OCCURRING. ONE
SUCH AREA IS ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN AND WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF
15N BETWEEN 59W-67W. THE OTHER AREA IS LOCATED IN THE VICINITY
OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA FROM
17N-21N BETWEEN 68W-77W. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES AND FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS PREVAIL ON EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY TRADES RANGING FROM
15 TO 25 KT. THE AREAS OF 20 TO 25 KT WINDS ARE NOTED IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE
GULF OF HONDURAS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO THIS MORNING. LOOKING AHEAD...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN BY LATE MONDAY VIA THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL AND STALL FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS BY
TUESDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...
LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FORMER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT BROKEN SKIES AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WITH ASSOCIATED DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE HINDERS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION AND WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ISLAND FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW COUPLED WITH MID-LEVEL
RIDGING IS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SW
NORTH ATLC S OF 30N THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH
IS GENERATING CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FOCUSED
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH ALONG 33N/34N W OF 76W.
THIS AREA OF CONVECTION FALLS WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A SURFACE RIDGE WHERE MAXIMUM SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS NOTED
ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW
NORTH ATLC IS UNDER FAIR SKIES W OF 60W AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 32N58W SW TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N78W. OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN THE VICINITY OF 29N53W THAT SUPPORTS A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 32N42W SW INTO A 1015 MB LOW
CENTERED NEAR 27N48W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS W-SW FROM THE LOW
TO 23N58W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL
LIFT DUE TO THE SHORTWAVE DYNAMICS ARE GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 23N-31N BETWEEN 39W-55W...
EMBEDDED WITHIN SURFACE RIDGING TO THE NORTHWEST AND TO THE
EAST. FINALLY...THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM NE OF THE AZORES NEAR 40N20W
TO 18N44W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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