[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170553
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N90W S-SW TO 23N96W THEN S TO
20N97W. NORTHERLY GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FROM 21N TO 26N WEST OF 95W. SEE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/
FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N11W TO
03N15W TO 03N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 03N19W TO 03N24W TO 01N30W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 49W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 07N BETWEEN 01W-07W...AND
WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 08N13W TO 03N18W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 02N BETWEEN 32W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A POSITIVELY-TILTED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SW TO OVER TEXAS AND THEN
TO A BASE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA NEAR 23N108W.
THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A 1002 MB LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHWESTERN
ALABAMA WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS S-SW TO THE GULF
COAST NEAR 29N91W TO 23N96W THEN S TO 20N97W. MOSAIC DOPPLER
RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 22N.
A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA
NEAR 30N82W TO 27N89W WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
TSTMS OCCURRING OVER THE NE GULF N OF 26N BETWEEN 82W-90W. THE
LOW ACROSS ALABAMA IS FORECAST TO DRIFT EASTWARD AND STALL
ACROSS GEORGIA MONDAY WHILE CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE EASTERN GULF...THEN RAPIDLY MOVES
NORTHEAST IN THE SW NORTH ATLC BY EARLY TUESDAY. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR EAST
OF THE BASIN BY TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED ACROSS THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL GULF WATERS AND GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE DAY ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING OVER THE CARIBBEAN
BASIN. THIS OVERALL PATTERN IS RESULTING IN VERY TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE WITH ONLY A COUPLE AREAS OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OCCURRING. ONE
SUCH AREA IS ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN AND WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF
14N BETWEEN 58W-66W. THE OTHER AREA IS LOCATED IN THE VICINITY
OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN
HISPANIOLA FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 70W-75W. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES
AND FAVORABLE CONDITIONS PREVAIL ON EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY TRADES
RANGING FROM 15 TO 25 KT. THE AREAS OF 20 TO 25 KT WINDS ARE
NOTED IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND IN THE
VICINITY OF THE GULF OF HONDURAS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING. LOOKING AHEAD...THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN BY LATE
MONDAY VIA THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND STALL FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO
THE GULF OF HONDURAS BY TUESDAY.

HISPANIOLA...
LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FORMER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT BROKEN SKIES AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WITH ASSOCIATED DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE HINDERS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION AND WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ISLAND FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW COUPLED WITH MID-LEVEL
RIDGING IS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SW
NORTH ATLC S OF 30N THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH
IS GENERATING CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FOCUSED
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH ALONG 33N BETWEEN 76W TO
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST NEAR 80W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION FALLS
WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE RIDGE WHERE
MAXIMUM SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS NOTED ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER FAIR
SKIES W OF 60W AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 32N57W SW TO
THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N78W. OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN
THE VICINITY OF 30N53W THAT SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING FROM 32N41W SW INTO A 1017 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N48W
TO 23N60W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL
LIFT DUE TO THE SHORTWAVE ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 24N-31N BETWEEN 37W-55W...EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE SURFACE RIDGING TO THE NORTHWEST AND TO THE EAST.
FINALLY...THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM NE OF THE AZORES NEAR 40N21W TO
20N40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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