[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170001
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO STARTING
TONIGHT THROUGH MON AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM 9 FT
TO 16 FT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 6N10W AND CONTINUES SW TO 2N19W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS ARE FROM 1N-6N
BETWEEN 12W-17W...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE
FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 10W-17W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 2N21W ALONG
0N38W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 0N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 80 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 30W-35W AS
WELL AS FROM 3S-2N W OF 38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM CHICAGO SW TO CENTRAL
TEXAS TO BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
ENTERED THE NW GULF WATERS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF 2100
UTC THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SE LOUISIANA NEAR 29N91W SW TO
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS NEAR 26N97W AND THEN WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN-
CENTRAL MEXICO AS A STATIONARY FRONT. EXCEPT FOR THE NW GULF...A
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE BASIN AND GENERATES
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT N OF 25N E OF 92W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN ALABAMA NEAR 31N87W TO 26N92W SW TO THE
WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 21N96W. CONTINUOUS MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN BY SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ALONG
WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ARE FUELING A SWATH OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND
TSTMS N OF 24N W OF A LINE FROM 30N82W SW TO 24N91W. GALE FORCE
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. BY
MONDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM
APALACHEE BAY SW TO THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE EASTERN
BAY OF CAMPECHE. BY TUE MORNING A PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
BE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN. SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF AND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THAT TIME
FRAME.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS THE BASIN WITH
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTING DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE WHICH IS
PROVIDING OVERALL STABILITY. AT THE SURFACE...LINGERING MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A FORMER FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUPPORTS BROKEN SKIES
AND POSSIBLE PASSING SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA AND PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO. OTHERWISE...TRADES OF 10-15 KT ARE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN WITH HIGHER WINDS UP TO 25 KT ALONG
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND ADJACENT WATERS. OVER THE NW
GULF...SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 15-20 KT. BY TUE
MORNING...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN
WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

HISPANIOLA...
LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FORMER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT BROKEN SKIES AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE ISLAND. HOWEVER...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH
ASSOCIATED DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE HINDERS THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP
CONVECTION. WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY MON
MORNING AS A LOW LEVEL DRY AIRMASS MOVES ACROSS THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BETWEEN 40W-60W CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT EXTENDS AS A STATIONARY FRONT
ALONG 30N43W TO A 1015 MB LOW NEAR 27N48W SW TO 24N55W WHERE IT
STARTS TO DISSIPATE TO 21N63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT ARE N OF 24N BETWEEN 40W-57W. OTHERWISE...SURFACE
RIDGING DOMINATES THE SW N ATLC WATERS AS WELL AS THE E ATLC N
OF 18N. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE MONDAY
LEAVING A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 50W-52W. A NEW COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO ENTER THE SW N ATLC BY TUE MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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