[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 161804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN MAR 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

..GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING IN ABOUT 12 HOURS...

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...CURRENTLY...EXPECT SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO
THE NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 86W AND 90W AND FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN
90W AND 94W.

THE 12-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF A COLD FRONT 30N88W TO 25N93W
TO 19N96W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH WINDS AND SEA
HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE WEST OF 94W
AND TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. EXPECT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 20
TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE
NORTH OF 25N TO THE WEST OF 93W. EXPECT ALSO SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF
25N BETWEEN 84W AND 89W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/
FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS,

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA
NEAR 10N14W...TO 5N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N20W TO
1N26W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 30W...AND THEN ALONG THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 30W AND 39W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG
FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN 8W AND 15W...FROM 1S TO 1N BETWEEN 30W AND
31W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 42W AND 52W IN BRAZIL.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT HAS BEEN SWEEPING ACROSS TEXAS...AND NOW IT IS
APPROACHING THE TEXAS GULF COAST. THE FRONT IS CONNECTED TO A
LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS IN ARKANSAS. A SURFACE TROUGH
CONNECTS A 1005 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR THE CENTRAL
TEXAS GULF COAST...TO A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
24N99W IN MEXICO. THE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 24N99W TO THE MEXICO
COAST THAT IS NEAR 20N97W. THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
ATMOSPHERIC SUPPORT FOR THE SURFACE FEATURES IS A TROUGH THAT
STILL IS INLAND...EXTENDING FROM ARKANSAS INTO TEXAS AND
NORTHERN MEXICO. A SEPARATE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL
TO WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...FROM THE COAST OF LOUISIANA INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 30 NM TO 45
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 31N85W IN
SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...TO 29N88W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO
28N92W...TO 25N95W IN THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. BROAD
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN GENERAL COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT
IS TO THE WEST OF 90W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS ARE BEING
REPORTED AT KEIR AND KSPR. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING
REPORTED AT KMDJ AND KDLP.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE PLATFORMS THAT
ARE BETWEEN KGBK AND 25T/KVAF. SOME AREAS OF EARLIER LOW
VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN IMPROVING IN VISIBILITY DURING THE LAST
FEW HOURS/OBSERVATIONS.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND PRECIPITATION COVER THE TEXAS
COASTAL PLAINS...AND PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL LOUISIANA.
MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS ARE SPREADING ACROSS FLORIDA.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS
WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT
IS ALONG THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COLOMBIA COAST ON THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE...COMBINED WITH THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT
COVERS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE
TRADE WIND FLOW. SOME OF COMPARATIVELY MORE PROMINENT AREAS OF
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE...TO THE SOUTH OF 14N
BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND FROM 16N TO 22N BETWEEN 67W AND
76W...COVERING THE CARIBBEAN SEA...HISPANIOLA...AND PARTS OF THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH DOES NOT EXIST IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
AT THIS MOMENT. ANY RAINSHOWERS THAT MAY BE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA ARE RELATED TO TRADE WIND FLOW AND
CLUSTERS OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 78W. A
SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND
SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE WEST OF
85W...INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS HISPANIOLA. THIS WIND
FLOW IS RELATED TO AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS
ALONG THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COLOMBIA COAST ON THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE...COMBINED WITH THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT
COVERS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
24N60W TO 20N70W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN GENERAL IN
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS FROM 16N TO 22N
BETWEEN 67W AND 76W...COVERING THE CARIBBEAN SEA...HISPANIOLA...
AND PARTS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA.

CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...LOW
LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN LA ROMANA AND
SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING
ARE BEING REPORTED IN PUERTO PLATA. RAINSHOWERS HAVE BEEN
REPORTED IN SANTIAGO AND IN PUERTO PLATA DURING THE LAST FEW
OBSERVATIONS. FEW LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS
COVER BARAHONA. FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO AND PUNTA
CANA. FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN PORT-AU-PRINCE IN
HAITI.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS HISPNAIOLA FROM WEST TO EAST ABOUT 18 HOURS INTO THE
PERIOD. WESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PRECEDE THE TROUGH. AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL END UP ON TOP OF COSTA RICA
BY THE END OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS-MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS
HISPANIOLA DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA AT
THE 24 HOUR TIME PERIOD. THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TO A POSITION THAT IS ABOUT 400 NM TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF HISPANIOLA BY THE END OF THE 48
HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA AS THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. THE GFS
MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER WILL BE NEAR ELEUTHERA ISLAND AND CAT ISLAND IN THE
BAHAMAS AT THE START OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE
ANTICYCLONIC CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO A POSITION THAT IS
ABOUT 425 NM TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF HISPANIOLA
AT 24 HOURS...GIVING ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ACROSS THE AREA.
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD...AS THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER
MOVES TO A POSITION THAT IS ABOUT 500 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER OF HISPANIOLA.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N42W TO 29N45W...TO
A 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N50W...TO A SECOND
1016 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 24N57W...TO 24N60W. A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 24N60W TO 20N70W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 42W AND 48W...AND FROM 25N TO 26N
BETWEEN 52W AND 54W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN
44W AND 58W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N59W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO
28N72W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
NEAR 26N. THE RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO
THE BORDER OF EASTERN HONDURAS AND NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA NEAR
15N84W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N22W TO
23N32W...TO 16N43W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 27N33W 21N40W 13N46W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF
THE COLD FRONT/DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A COLD FRONT FROM 31N44W TO A 1016 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N50W...TO 24N60W...THEN A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT FROM 24N60W TO 20N70W. EXPECT WINDS
20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 9 FEET TO THE NORTH OF A
LINE FROM 31N44W TO 25N50W TO 25N55W. THE 06 HOUR FORECAST
CONSISTS OF SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER
THAN 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF A LINE FROM 31N77W TO 27N80W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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