[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160000
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST IN THE GULF OF MEXICO STARTING SUN
NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT. THROUGHOUT
THIS PERIOD SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM 9 FT TO 12 FT.
PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 7N11W AND CONTINUES SW TO 2N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 0N30W TO 0N37W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 21W-26W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 2S-7N BETWEEN
18W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICT SOUTHWESTERLY-WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ADVECTING MODERATE MOISTURE FROM THE E PAC TO THE NORTHERN BASIN
N OF 27N WHILE DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER
GULF SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. AT THE SURFACE...AN ELONGATED
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 42N55W AND A 1025 MB HIGH
NEAR 33N64W EXTENDS INTO THE GULF AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 10-15 KT WITH A MAX OF 20 KT IN THE
NW BASIN. RETURN FLOW CONTINUE TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
THE NW CARIBBEAN INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF WHICH IS
SUPPORTING BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES N OF 26N W OF 87W AND FOG N
OF 27N W OF 91W. RIDGING AND RETURN FLOW UP TO 20 KT IS FORECAST
TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH SUN MORNING. A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE FAR WESTERN BASIN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE NW
GULF EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN BASIN. SEE
THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS
ACROSS HISPANIOLA AS A STATIONARY FRONT AND SUPPORTS BROKEN
SKIES WITH POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAINLY OVER THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. OVER THE NW BASIN...LINGERING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT
ENHANCES SHOWERS ACROSS JAMAICA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY ENHANCE PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE MONA
PASSAGE AND NORTHERN PUERTO RICO. SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FOR
THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF
MOISTURE APPROACHING THE REGION. ALOFT...A RIDGE DOMINATES THE
BASIN WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTING DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE
WHICH IS PROVIDING OVERALL STABILITY. OTHERWISE...TRADES OF 10-
15 KT ARE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE N OF HISPANIOLA BY SUN MORNING WHERE IT IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE.

HISPANIOLA...
THE TAIL OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS
THE ISLAND AS A STATIONARY FRONT. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ITS VICINITY SUPPORTS BROKEN
SKIES AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ISLAND...ESPECIALLY FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE N OF THE ISLAND BY SUN MORNING...HOWEVER
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT RAINSHOWERS THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 30N46W SW TO
24N56W TO 21N63W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO
HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N70W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ARE N OF 23N BETWEEN
43W-57W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE SW
N ATLC WATERS AS WELL AS THE E ATLC N OF 17N. THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A STATIONARY FRONT TONIGHT AND START
DISSIPATING SUN MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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