[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160556
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST IN THE GULF OF MEXICO STARTING SUN
NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT. THROUGHOUT
THIS PERIOD SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM 9 FT TO 12 FT.
PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 07N11W AND CONTINUES SW TO 02N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 01S48W NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE AMAZON RIVER.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 25N AND 30W AND WEST OF 35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY FLOW IS BRINGING
WARM MOIST AIR NORTHWARD INTO THE NW GULF THIS MORNING...AHEAD
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE NW GULF THROUGH TEXAS.
OIL RIG PLATFORMS OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUE TO REPORT
SEA FOG...WITH VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 3/4 NM OFF THE COAST OF
TEXAS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF THIS
AFTERNOON...CLEARING THE MOISTURE AND PROVIDING WINDS TO GALE
FORCE TO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF MEXICO BY THIS
EVENING. ASIDE FROM THE GALE FORCE WINDS THAT WILL HUG THE
MEXICAN COAST FROM TAMPICO TO VERACRUZ THROUGH EARLY MON...25 TO
30 KT WINDS WITH SEAS TO 13 FT WILL DEVELOP OVER MOST OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE SW GULF INTO TUE. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP THE GULF
OF MEXICO THROUGH TUE...WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH THOUGH TUE AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS OVER THE BASIN.

 CARIBBEAN SEA...

A FEW AREAS OF CLOUDS WITH SOME EMBEDDED SHOWERS COVER THE N
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG THE REMNANTS OF A STATIONARY FRONT THAT
EXTENDED ACROSS HISPANIOLA EARLIER. BUOYS INDICATED GENERALLY
MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN...SOUTH OF FAIRLY WEAK
HIGH PRES NE OF THE BAHAMAS. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF
MOISTURE APPROACHING THE REGION. ALOFT...A RIDGE DOMINATES THE
BASIN WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTING DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE
WHICH IS PROVIDING OVERALL STABILITY. OTHERWISE...TRADES OF 10-
15 KT ARE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE N OF HISPANIOLA BY SUN MORNING WHERE IT IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE. LOOKING AHEAD...SE TRADES WILL BECOME
STRONG ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS LATE SUN WITH THESE CONDITIONS
SPREADING N ACROSS THE YUCATAN BASIN ON SUN NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ON MON EVENING.
THE FRONT WILL STALL AND WEAKEN FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE EASTERN
GULF OF HONDURAS ON TUE. REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL DRIFT NW ON
WED. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

HISPANIOLA...
THE TAIL OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC INTO THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AS A
STATIONARY FRONT. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ITS VICINITY SUPPORTS BROKEN SKIES AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE N OF THE
ISLAND BY SUN MORNING...HOWEVER LINGERING MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT
SHOWERS THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLC N OF 23N ALONG
55W SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA
ALONG 32N45W SW TO VERY WEAK 1016 MB LOW PRES NEAR 25N51W TO
22N61W...WHERE IT BECOMES A STATIONARY FRONT INTO THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ARE N OF 25N BETWEEN 43W AND 51W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE SW N ATLC
WATERS AS WELL AS THE E ATLC N OF 17N. THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A STATIONARY FRONT TONIGHT AND START
DISSIPATING SUN MORNING. BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND AN ALTIMETER PASS
FROM SEVERAL HOURS AGO INDICATED AN AREA OF SWELL FROM 8 TO 12
FT COVERING MUCH OF THE ATLC WATERS GENERALLY W OF THE FRONT TO
65W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
CHRISTENSEN


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