[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151754
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT MAR 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IN 36
HOURS...

..GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...THE 24-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE
SOUTH OF 24N BETWEEN 89W AND 93W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST
AT 36 HOURS. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST ALONG 30N89W 22N94W
19N96W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS AND SEA
HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET FROM 21N TO 26N TO THE WEST OF 94W AND TO
THE WEST OF THE FRONT. EXPECT ALSO NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 20
TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST OF A
LINE FROM 29N95W TO 25N92W AND TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. PLEASE
READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS,

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL BORDER AREAS OF SIERRA
LEONE AND LIBERIA NEAR 9N13W TO 3N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
3N18W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 24W...TO 2S32W AND 2S36W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM THE PRIME
MERIDIAN EASTWARD FROM 4S TO 2N...FROM THE EQUATOR TO 1N FROM 6W
EASTWARD. SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
EQUATOR ALONG 17W...1N19W 3N21W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO
THE SOUTH OF 5N.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. A MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE COAST OF LOUISIANA. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF LAKE MARACAIBO...ACROSS NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO CENTRAL
NICARAGUA...TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1026 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N65W...TO 32N70W TO 30N78W...
ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA...INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO...THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TOWARD THE
MEXICO COAST NEAR 20N.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT KGVX. MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED AT...KVBS...KSPR...KMDJ...AND
IN THE COASTAL PLAINS/COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA...INCLUDING KDLP...K9F2...AND BOOTHVILLE. A VISIBILITY
OF 2 MILES OR LESS AND FOG IS BEING REPORTED AT KBBF ALONG THE
TEXAS COAST.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS. RAIN STARTS
FROM BAY CITY AND ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON TO THE HOUSTON
METROPOLITAN AREA. SOME LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND MOSTLY MIDDLE
LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER COASTAL LOUISIANA/
EXTREME SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS AND PATCHY RAIN COVER THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI
AND ALABAMA. LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM
MARIANNA TO THE PANAMA CITY METROPOLITAN AREA. LOW CLOUD
CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED ALSO IN FLORIDA FROM PUNTA GORDA TO
THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORT MYERS METROPOLITAN AREA.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...JUST
TO THE SOUTH OF LAKE MARACAIBO...ACROSS NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO CENTRAL
NICARAGUA...TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE
TRADE WIND FLOW. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE
PERIOD ENDING AT 15/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01
KNHC...IS 0.30 IN TRINIDAD AND 0.15 IN GUADELOUPE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH DOES NOT EXIST IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
AT THIS MOMENT. ANY RAINSHOWERS THAT MAY BE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA ARE RELATED TO TRADE WIND FLOW AND
CLUSTERS OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8
TO 10 FEET FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...JUST
TO THE SOUTH OF LAKE MARACAIBO...ACROSS NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO CENTRAL
NICARAGUA...TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH
22N64W TO 20N71W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 58W AND
72W ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST/IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF
HISPANIOLA. EARLIER MULTILAYERED CLOUDS THAT WERE WITHIN 130 NM
OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING WITH
TIME...COMPARATIVELY SPEAKING.

CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...LOW
LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN LA ROMANA...AND IN
SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTO DOMINGO. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE
BEING OBSERVED IN PUNTA CANA AND IN PUERTO PLATA. FEW LOW CLOUDS
COVER BARAHONA. FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN PORT-AU-
PRINCE IN HAITI.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY-
WESTERLY-TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...
WITH A CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA THE GFS-MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT WESTERLY-TO-NORTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CROSS THE AREA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR
700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS
HISPANIOLA...WITH A CUBA-TO-NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA/ATLANTIC
OCEAN RIDGE.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N48W TO 26N54W...
AND TO 22N64W. THE FRONT IS STATIONARY FROM 22N64W TO 20N71W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N47W TO 27N50W 24N55W 23N58W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
IN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 58W AND 72W ALONG
THE NORTHERN COAST/IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF HISPANIOLA.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1026 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N65W...TO 32N70W TO 30N78W...
ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA...INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO...THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TOWARD THE
MEXICO COAST NEAR 20N.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 34N27W TO
28N30W 20N40W AND 10N47W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 27N33W 21N40W 13N46W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF
10N TO THE EAST OF 60W AND TO THE EAST OF THE 32N48W 26N54W
22N64W 20N71W FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A COLD FRONT FROM 31N49W TO 28N53W TO
23N61W THEN STATIONARY TO 21N65W TO 20N73W. EXPECT NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET
WITHIN 180 NM TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20
KNOTS OR LESS ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT TO A LINE FROM
31N66W TO 23N75W. SEA HEIGHTS S 8 TO 12 FT IN NW SWELL
...HIGHEST TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 53W AND 62W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net