[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151050
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT MAR 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA
COAST SUNDAY AND PRODUCE GALE FORCE NW TO N WINDS FROM 22N TO
26N W OF 95W BEGINNING AT 17/0000 UTC. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO
03N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
03N19W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 23W THEN ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 33W.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 04N
BETWEEN 11W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OCCURRING OVER THE GULF
BASIN THIS MORNING WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY STREAMING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ON THE SUBTROPICAL
JET OVER NW MEXICO...TEXAS...AND REMAINING GENERALLY N OF 30N
OVER THE SE CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...CONDITIONS ARE FAIRLY
TRANQUIL AS A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE SW NORTH ATLC
EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS ALONG 29N TO 95W. E-SE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS
THE GULF IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT WITH ONLY LOW-LEVEL STRATUS
FOUND ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY N OF 23N W OF 90W. LOOKING
AHEAD...THE E-SE WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY WHEN
THE NEXT COLD FRONT STEMMING FROM A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
CENTER ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE
TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER BLAST OF N-
NW WINDS WILL FOLLOW IN WAKE OF THE FRONT W OF 90W THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. THEREAFTER...THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST AS A HIGH ANCHORED ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO WILL SLIDE
EASTWARD MONDAY INTO TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
OVERALL DRY AND STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING OVER THE CARIBBEAN. THIS ENVIRONMENT
IS PROVIDING FOR RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL WATERS...INCLUDING
HISPANIOLA AS A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED FROM
23N62W SW TO 19N73W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING N OF 16N
BETWEEN 68W-74W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER
FAIR SKIES WITH TRADES RANGING FROM 10 TO 20 KT. AS THE USUAL...
INCREASED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE OCCURRING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY
TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
STRONGEST. THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
ISLAND AND IN THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS ANALYZED FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC SW TO 23N62W TO 19N73W.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY WHILE CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND PROVIDE AN
INCREASED PROBABILITY OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC
WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 40N54W TO 30N56W TO 27N63W.
THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N49W TO
23N62W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN
HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N73W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING
WITHIN 210 NM EAST OF THE FRONT N OF 25N AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 25N. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW
NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 33N68W THAT IS PROVIDING OVERALL TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FOR
THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS MORNING. FARTHER EAST...
THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB HIGH CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA NEAR 48N17W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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