[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150555
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT MAR 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA
COAST SUNDAY AND PRODUCE GALE FORCE NW TO N WINDS FROM 22N TO
26N W OF 95W BEGINNING AT 17/0000 UTC. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 05N09W TO
02N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
02N19W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 24W THEN ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 48W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF
04N BETWEEN 10W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OCCURRING OVER THE GULF
BASIN THIS EVENING WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY STREAMING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ON THE SUBTROPICAL
JET OVER NW MEXICO...TEXAS...AND REMAINING GENERALLY N OF 30N
ACROSS THE SE CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...CONDITIONS ARE FAIRLY
TRANQUIL AS A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE SW NORTH ATLC
EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS ALONG 30N TO 97W. E-SE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS
THE GULF IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT WITH ONLY LOW-LEVEL STRATUS
FOUND ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY N OF 23N W OF 90W. LOOKING
AHEAD...THE E-SE WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY WHEN
THE NEXT COLD FRONT STEMMING FROM A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
CENTER ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE
TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER BLAST OF N-
NW WINDS WILL FOLLOW IN WAKE OF THE FRONT W OF 90W THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. THEREAFTER...THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST AS A HIGH ANCHORED ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO WILL
SLIDE EASTWARD MONDAY INTO TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
OVERALL DRY AND STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING OVER THE CARIBBEAN. THIS ENVIRONMENT
IS PROVIDING FOR RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL WATERS...INCLUDING
HISPANIOLA AS A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED FROM
20N70W W TO 19N84W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING N OF 17N
BETWEEN 69W-74W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER
FAIR SKIES WITH TRADES RANGING FROM 10 TO 20 KT. AS THE
USUAL...INCREASED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE OCCURRING IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS STRONGEST. THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
ISLAND AND IN THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS ANALYZED FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC SW TO 22N65W TO 19N74W TO
19N84W IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
FAIRLY STATIONARY THROUGH LATE SATURDAY WHILE CONTINUING TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC
WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 40N56W TO 30N57W TO 27N64W.
THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N52W TO
25N60W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N71W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 210 NM EAST OF THE FRONT
N OF 25N AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 25N.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N71W THAT IS
PROVIDING OVERALL TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FOR THE BAHAMAS AND
FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS EVENING. FARTHER EAST...THE EASTERN ATLC
IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N37W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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