[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141041
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 10N14W AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N15W TO 3N17W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N22W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 29W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO S OF
THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 27W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLC GIVING THE GULF W TO W-SW FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE
RIDGE IS SHIFTING NE BUT STILL COVERS THE GULF ANCHORED BY A
1026 MB HIGH OVER S GEORGIA. LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN VERACRUZ AND
TAMPICO LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS PRODUCING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW THAT
WILL SPREAD E ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF BY LATE TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF SUN MORNING REACHING FROM SE
LOUISIANA TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE SUN THEN REACHING
FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE SUN NIGHT
AND OUT OF THE GULF LATE MON. STRONG TO GALE FORCE WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS MAY FOLLOW THE FRONT ACROSS A LARGE AREA OF THE
GULF WATERS LATE SUN AND MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING A RIDGE
AXIS NE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W
ATLC EXTENDS A COLD FRONT AT 14/0900 UTC ACROSS CUBA JUST E OF
CAMAGUEY AND CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 20N83W TO THE
COAST OF BELIZE NEAR BELIZE CITY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 90 NM W OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND WITHIN 75 NM E OF THE
COLD FRONT. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY
AND STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE BASIN E OF 80W. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER HISPANIOLA COUPLED WITH THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 17N-19N TO INLAND OVER
HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 71W-74W. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE SE AGAIN TODAY REACHING FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO E
HONDURAS THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH SUN. FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL DEVELOP EACH NIGHT ALONG THE NW COAST OF
COLOMBIA WHILE MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE
THROUGH MON.

HISPANIOLA...
MOISTURE IS ESTABLISHED OVER E HISPANIOLA AND COUPLED WITH THE
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 17N-
19N TO INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 71W-74W. THIS IS LEAVING
THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING. THE FRONT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE TO THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE LATER TODAY BECOMING E/W ACROSS HISPANIOLA
BEFORE STALLING AND DISSIPATING SAT AND SUN. THIS WILL PROVIDE
LINGERING MOISTURE TO GENERATE AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS WITH
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT ENTERS THE W ATLC AT 14/0900 UTC NEAR 32N60W AND EXTENDS
ALONG 25N66W TO ACROSS CUBA JUST E OF CAMAGUEY INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT MAINLY N OF 23N. A WEAK LOW
LEVEL SWIRL IS PRODUCING SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 28N57W
TO 25N54W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E ATLC CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR
32N27W AND EXTENDS TO 27N31W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE
AREA E OF 60W WITH WEAKNESSES IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITIES OF THE
ABOVE FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH AND IS ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH
NEAR 35N38W. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES E
EXTENDING FROM 32N59W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE LATER TODAY THEN
WILL STALL FROM N OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO OVER HISPANIOLA
BEFORE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING SAT AND SUN. SURFACE RIDGE IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT E OFF THE CAROLINAS TODAY AND PASS
TO THE N OF BERMUDA ON SAT WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO NE
FLORIDA. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE W ATLC LATE MON.
GALE FORCE WINDS MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE MON INTO TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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