[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141738
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 10N14W AND CONTINUES SW TO 03N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES THROUGH 01N29W TO 01S36W TO 02S46W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE LOCATED FROM 05N TO S OF THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 30W AND 42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF WITH WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA. WINDS ARE STRONGEST IN THE NE GULF WITH WINDS ESTIMATED AT
55 TO 60 KNOTS. BROAD RIDGING ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF
OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE AREA IS VOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY AND CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL OVER THE NE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT MENTIONED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION
CONTINUES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN
WHERE WINDS ARE AS HIGH AS 50 KNOTS. LIGHT WINDS ALOFT PREVAIL
OVER THE SW PART OF THE BASIN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
20N74W TO 20N78W AND THEN CONTINUES AS A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT
INTO CENTRAL BELIZE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LOCATED OVER CUBA E
OF 77W AND OVER BELIZE. N OF THE COLD/STATIONARY FRONT WINDS
ARE NE 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH SEAS TO 9 FEET.

HISPANIOLA...
THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS HISPANIOLA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AND IS THEN
EXPECTED TO STALL. THIS WILL GENERATE AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS
WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A LARGE MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
W OF ABOUT 55W WITH THE AXIS ALONG 65W. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
IS LOCATED THROUGH 32N58W TO 25N64W TO 20N74W. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS IS LOCATED THROUGH 32N50W TO 20N60W. MOVING
DOWNSTREAM THE SOUTHERN PART OF A LARGE MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION LOCATED N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA COVERS THE
AREA N OF 25N BETWEEN 23W AND 40W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS
LOCATED FROM 05N TO 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
CAB


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