[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140558
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 5N9W AND CONTINUES TO 1N15W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 1N18W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 21W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO
TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 26W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS OVER
THE W ATLC GIVING THE GULF W TO W-SW FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE RIDGE
COVERS THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI
DELTA. THIS IS GIVING MOST OF THE GULF FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. THE
STATIONARY FRONT INLAND OVER MEXICO ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE
SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IS BANKING LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN VERACRUZ
AND TAMPICO. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS PRODUCING SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW THAT WILL SPREAD E ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF BY LATE FRI
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF AROUND SUNRISE ON
SUN REACHING FROM THE W FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF
CAMPECHE AROUND SUNSET ON SUN THEN REACHING FROM THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE AROUND SUNRISE ON MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING A RIDGE
AXIS N OVER THE W ATLC. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. SEABOARD INTO THE W ATLC EXTENDS A COLD FRONT INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN AT 14/0300 UTC ACROSS CUBA NEAR CAMAGUEY AND CONTINUES
ALONG 20N83W TO THE COAST OF BELIZE NEAR BELIZE CITY. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 75 NM OF THE FRONT. SATELLITE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS
MOST OF THE BASIN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS INCREASING OVER E CUBA
AND THE HISPANIOLA AND COUPLED WITH THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE
GENERATING PATCHES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 17N TO INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA AND CUBA
BETWEEN 70W-77W. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN
TONIGHT AND STALL FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO E HONDURAS ON FRI
THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH SUN. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
TRADE WINDS WILL DEVELOP EACH NIGHT ALONG THE NW COAST OF
COLOMBIA. MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH
MON.

HISPANIOLA...
MOISTURE IS INCREASING OVER HISPANIOLA AND COUPLED WITH THE
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 17N TO INLAND OVER
HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 70W-74W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF
HISPANIOLA UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MON. THE FRONT OVER CUBA WILL MOVE
TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE LATER TODAY DRIFTING TO N OF THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS BEFORE STALLING AND DISSIPATING SAT AND SUN. THIS WILL
PROVIDE LINGERING MOISTURE TO GENERATE AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS
WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND INTO THE W
ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE W ATLC AT
14/0300 UTC NEAR 32N62W AND EXTENDS ALONG 25N70W TO ACROSS CUBA
NEAR CAMAGUEY INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT. A PAIR OF WEAK
LOW LEVEL SWIRLS ARE PRODUCING SURFACE TROUGHS WITH ONE
EXTENDING FROM 29N50W TO 26N48W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60
NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
27N57W ALONG 24N55W TO 22N56W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90
NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E ATLC CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N28W
AND EXTENDS TO 26N36W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA E
OF 65W WITH WEAKNESSES IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITIES OF THE ABOVE
FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGHS AND ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR
35N39W. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 32N60W TO THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE ON FRI DRIFTING TO N OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
THEN STALLING AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATING SAT AND SUN. SURFACE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT E OFF THE CAROLINAS ON FRI AND PASS TO THE N OF
BERMUDA ON SAT WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO NE FLORIDA. THE
RIDGE WILL WEAKEN LATE SUN ALLOWING A SECOND WEAKER COLD FRONT
TO MOVE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST LATE SUN NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net