[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101743
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON MAR 10 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N11W TO
03N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
03N18W TO 01N24W TO 01N31W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 34W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 04N BETWEEN 18W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO NEAR 26N106W THAT CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. PRECEDING THE MAJORITY OF
THE ENERGY ALOFT...A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED OVER
THE NW GULF WATERS NEAR 28N94 THAT IS SUPPORTING MOISTURE AND
CLOUDINESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN GULF...IN ADDITION TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS N OF 24N W OF 93W.
GIVEN THE FAVORABLE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS OVER THE
WESTERN GULF...A WEAK 1015 MB LOW IS CENTERED IN THE SW GULF
NEAR 20N94W WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING N-NE FROM THE LOW
CENTER TO 25N94W TO 28N90W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF S OF 27N W OF 90W.
OTHERWISE...THE EASTERN GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE
RIDGING THIS AFTERNOON ANCHORED BY A BROAD 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 25N79W...EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS NW TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
DELTA REGION. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF
IS FORECAST TO DRIFT GRADUALLY NORTHWARD AND BECOME EMBEDDED
WITHIN S-SW FLOW THROUGH TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO
EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO USHER IN ANOTHER AROUND OF STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KT IN ITS WAKE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N76W AND IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR
THE OVERALL STABILITY AND DRY AIR NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE BASIN. ONLY A FEW AREAS OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING...MOST NOTABLY S OF 16N BETWEEN 62W-
70W...AND S-SW OF HISPANIOLA FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 72W-76W.
OTHERWISE...TRADES REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 15 KT
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NOTED IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE
REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED TO THE E-
NE OF HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 45 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20N65W TO 18N69W. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE ALSO OCCURRING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS
FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 72W-76W. OVERALL THOUGH...MOSTLY DRY
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE
ISLAND AND THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS OVER THE WESTERN NORTH
ATLC...MAINLY NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH MID-LEVEL ENERGY
STRETCHED ALONG A LINE FROM 33N49W TO 30N63W TO 33N79W. THE MID-
LEVEL ENERGY SUPPORTS A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS ANALYZED INTO THE
REGION. ONE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N60W TO 31N70W AND BECOMES
STATIONARY TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST NEAR 35N78W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING N OF 28N BETWEEN 46W AND THE 66W. THE
EASTERN MOST COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N43W SW TO 27N50W TO
20N64W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH
CENTERED BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE NW
BAHAMAS NEAR 25N79W. FINALLY...A VIGOROUS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 31N14W AND SUPPORTS A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE FOCUSED AROUND A 1009 MB LOW CENTERED BETWEEN THE CANARY
ISLANDS AND MADEIRA ISLANDS NEAR 31N17W. THE OCCLUDED FRONT
WRAPS AROUND THE LOW FROM 30N21W TO 34N20W AND BECOMES A COLD
FRONT TO 33N12W TO 28N11W TO 22N20W...THEN CONTINUES WESTWARD AS
A STATIONARY FRONT TO 22N34W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN

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