[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102355
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON MAR 10 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2230 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N11W TO
02N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
02N18W TO THE EQUATOR AT 26W TO 01N31W TO THE EQUATOR AT 34W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 300 NM N OF THE
ITCZ BETWEEN 22W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE PASSING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW THAT IS
MOVING INTO THE EASTERN RIO GRANDE VALLEY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW IS POOLING
MOISTURE IN THE WESTERN GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE FOUND NEAR THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM 23N-
28N BETWEEN 88W AND 94W AS WELL AS IN THE COASTAL WATERS OFF
WEST TEXAS AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. RECENT ASCAT IMAGERY AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A SURFACE TROUGH PARALLELS THE WESTERN
GULF COAST APPROXIMATELY 120 NM OFFSHORE. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SUGGESTS LOW CLOUDS ARE PLENTIFUL W OF THIS TROUGH
PRIMARILY S OF 27N. ASCAT ALSO SHOWS A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE W CENTRAL GULF WITH A SECOND TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THIS
LOW NORTHEASTWARD. OVERNIGHT...THE WARM AND MOIST AIR MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN GULF SHOULD CLASH WITH THE DRIER AIR TO THE
NORTH...ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO LIKELY FORM. THE WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TUE AS THE UPPER LOW IS SWEPT
EASTWARD BY AN AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS TROUGH WILL SEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHWEST
GULF WED. WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR
GALE FORCE BY WED EVENING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT IS PARKED JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO
AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE BOUNDARY CAN BE FOUND. ELSEWHERE...ONLY A FEW AREAS OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A MORE
ORGANIZED AREA S-SW OF HISPANIOLA FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 72W-78W.
THE LACK OF SHOWERS IS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THAT IS
GENERALLY PROVIDING STABILITY AND DRY AIR OVER THE BASIN. WINDS
AT THE SURFACE ARE RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...WITH
1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE SITTING JUST N OF THE AREA OVER THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS DRIVING THE TRADE WINDS. THE STRONGEST TRADES
CAN BE FOUND CLOSE TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS STRONGEST. THIS HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
WED. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY IN THE NW
CARIBBEAN AND THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO
WILL DISSIPATE AS A RESULT. OTHERWISE...SENSIBLE WEATHER
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...
THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK WINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN HAVE ALLOWED A
SEABREEZE TO PUSH INLAND FROM THE COAST OVER HISPANIOLA. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS ACCUMULATED WHERE THE SEABREEZE
HAS MET THE WINDWARD SLOPES. PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS
DRIER AIR IN PLACE OVER HAITI THAN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WHICH
IS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MOISTURE POOLED NEAR THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY FOUND NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS FORCED NORTHEASTWARD BY A COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SHOULD DECREASE THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH
ATLC. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT
AT THE SURFACE FROM 32N42W TO JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE SEEN ON THE SAN JUAN RADAR AND EXTEND
NORTHEASTWARD PRIMARILY WITHIN 90 NM OF THE BOUNDARY. IN THE
AREA N OF 15N...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE HIGHEST ALONG THE
STATIONARY FRONT. A SECONDARY SPOKE IN THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A
COLD FRONT THAT DIPS SOUTH OF BERMUDA TO 31N66W THEN BECOMES A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO THE BORDER OF NORTH AND SOUTH
CAROLINA. THIS BOUNDARY HAS MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF IT. IT IS THE DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ABOVE ONE INCH AND VALUES BELOW ONE INCH NORTH OF THE
FRONT. COLD AIR CUMULUS CLOUDS CAN BE FOUND N OF THE FRONT. THE
BROAD TROUGH ALOFT WILL BE SQUEEZED EASTWARD AS A NEW BROAD
TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND PROMOTES RIDGING
AHEAD OF IT OVER THE WESTERN ATLC. THE TWO SURFACE BOUNDARIES
ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MERGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLC BY WED
AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY...A WEAKENING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
OVER THE EASTERN ATLC CENTERED NEAR 31N11W. IT SUPPORTS A
COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FOCUSED AROUND A 1009 MB LOW
CENTERED BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS AND MADEIRA ISLANDS NEAR
30N16W. A DISSIPATING OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO THE
CENTRAL COAST OF MOROCCO AND BECOMES A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT
THROUGH WESTERN SAHARA TO 21N20W THEN CONTINUES WESTWARD AS A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO 22N34W. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 90 NM OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT
INCLUDING OVER CENTRAL MOROCCO. THE LOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD INTO MOROCCO AND BECOME ABSORBED INTO A LARGER LOW OVER
THE WESTERN MEDITERRANEAN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
SCHAUER


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