[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101043
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON MAR 10 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SIERRA LEONE NEAR
8N13W TO 3N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N18W TO 1N26W TO 1N35W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE FROM 1S-4N BETWEEN 14W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE GULF AND SOUTHERN U.S.
STATES AND PROVIDES SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH CONTINUE TO
ADVECT MODERATE MOISTURE FROM THE E PAC WATERS INTO THE BASIN.
AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SW LOUISIANA
NEAR 29N93W TO 23N95W TO 18N95W AND THEN INLAND CENTRAL MEXICO.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
ITS VICINITY IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS W
OF THE FRONT S OF 29N. SCATTEROMETER WIND DATA DEPICT A SURFACE
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 27N94W TO 18N92W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH
AXIS. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE EASTERN GULF ANCHORED BY A
1020 MB HIGH. THE RIDGE IS PROVIDING EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW OF 10-15 KT ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF EAST OF THE STATIONARY
FRONT. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SE DURING
THE DAY TODAY WHILE RETURN FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE KEEPS
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONFINED TO THE FAR WESTERN GULF. BY TUE
MORNING THE STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A WARM
FRONT WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE CENTER OFFSHORE GALVESTON
TEXAS.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NO NOTABLE FEATURES OCCURRING OVER THE CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING.
ALOFT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE BASIN AND PROVIDES
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND W OF 70W AND NORTHWESTERLIES ELSEWHERE. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUE TO INDICATE DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WHICH IS HINDERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION.
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH TAIL EXTENDING NE OF PUERTO RICO CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT CLOUDINESS OVER EASTERN HISPANIOLA AND SOUTHERN
ADJACENT WATERS...PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. A MOIST AIRMASS IS NOTED IN SSMI TPW
IMAGERY OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN S OF PUERTO RICO WHICH MAY BE
ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THIS REGION. OTHERWISE...TRADES OF
10-15 KT DOMINATE THE REGION. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN WINDS
OR RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

...HISPANIOLA...
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH TAIL EXTENDING NE OF PUERTO RICO SUPPORTS
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND SOUTHERN ADJACENT WATERS N OF
15N WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. EXCEPT FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH ACROSS THE N WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ATLC SUPPORTS A FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N46W
TO 24N55W TO 20N64W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 160 NM E OF THE
FRONT. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE N
EASTERN ATLC SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT ENTERS AS A COLD
FRONT FROM 30N11W TO 22N24W TO 23N34W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A
STATIONARY FRONT TO 30N38W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N
OF 29N BETWEEN 31W-38W. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING IS W AND E
OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE CENTRAL ATLC. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE SW N ATLC IS ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH NW OF FREEPORT AND A
1021 MB HIGH OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. THE RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL-EASTERN GULF IS ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH S OF THE
AZORES AND A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 23N38W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR

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