[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 061153
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU MAR 06 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

DEVELOPING GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 30N22W...

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO FRANCE GRAND LARGE METAREA II HIGH
SEAS FORECAST FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE DEVELOPING GALE-FORCE
WINDS THAT ARE FORECAST FOR THE IRVING AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY...ROUGHLY NEAR 30N22W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 5N9W TO
5N20W 3N27W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N27W TO 2N32W...CROSSING
THE EQUATOR ALONG 37W...AND ALONG THE EQUATOR STILL TO 38W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 3N
TO 5N BETWEEN 12W AND 17W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 5N BETWEEN 10W AND 36W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 4N BETWEEN
44W AND 52W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF
3N TO THE EAST OF 6W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF
50W...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DIGGING THROUGH LOUISIANA...THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... AND INTERIOR MEXICO
TO THE NORTH OF 23N TO THE EAST OF 104W. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS THE FEATURE THAT WAS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
WEST TEXAS DURING THE MORNING HOURS ABOUT 24 HOURS AGO.

A COLD FRONT REACHES 32N60W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A WARM FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 32N60W...ACROSS BERMUDA...TO A 1014 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N68W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
THE 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 31N73W. A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 31N73W...ACROSS FLORIDA FROM 27N TO 28N...INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N87W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES FROM
27N87W TO 28N91W AND TO A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 26N92W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE 1009 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER TO 21N95W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST FROM 27N80W...ALONG THE EDGE OF THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS...TO 27N75W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 25N TO 29N BETWEEN 84W AND 88W.
OTHER RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER ARE TO THE NORTH OF 25N TO THE
EAST OF 90W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE IN THE
FLORIDA STRAITS AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 30N66W 26N75W 23N81W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE TO NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 50W.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...AS A RIDGE...HAS BUILT TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ALONG THE
COASTS/COASTAL PLAINS OF TEXAS AND MEXICO...TO 20N.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT ALL THE PLATFORM SITES/
ICAO STATIONS...EXCEPT FOR STATION KATP. ICAO STATION KATP HAS
BEEN REPORTING EITHER SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS OR A LOW CLOUD
CEILING...AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING...DURING THE LAST TEN
OBSERVATIONS.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE ENTIRE GULF COASTAL PLAINS AND
COASTAL AREAS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ONE EXCEPTION IS CLEARING SKIES IN THE MIDDLE
TEXAS GULF COAST. RAIN IS BEING REPORTED IN BOOTHVILLE IN
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...AND IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE
WEST OF PERRY. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS CONTINUE FROM PERRY TO
FORT MYERS. A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVERS NAPLES.
VISIBILITIES OF 2 MILES OR LESS WITH FOG ARE FOUND IN PUNTA
GORDA AND PARTS OF FORT MYERS.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT THE STATIONARY FRONT FROM 27N83W TO 28N90W THEN WARM FRONT
TO A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N92W...THEN COLD
FRONT TO 21N95W. EXPECT WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS
LOWER THAN 8 FEET BETWEEN 60 NM AND 120 NM IN THE NORTHWESTERN
QUADRANT OF THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER. EXPECT ALSO
NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET
ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 89W AND 92W.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE VENEZUELA COAST THAT IS
NEAR 11N69W...BEYOND HISPANIOLA...THEN CURVING THROUGH 25N66W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE
TRADE WIND FLOW...MOSTLY TO THE NORTH OF 11N63W 13N73W 13N83W...
TO THE NORTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 80W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 13N
TO THE WEST OF 76W. BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM
ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...TO 22N79W IN CUBA...TO 17N81W IN
THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 8N82W IN PANAMA BEYOND 6N90W IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. ANY RAINSHOWERS THAT MAY BE IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE SOUTH OF 13N
TO THE WEST OF 76W...ARE RELATED TO TRADE WIND FLOW AND CLUSTERS
OF LOW CLOUDS.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W. EXPECT
ALSO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST BETWEEN 65W AND 70W. A SECOND AREA OF
CONCERN CONSISTS OF SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 18N BETWEEN 84W AND
87W.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE VENEZUELA COAST THAT IS
NEAR 11N69W...BEYOND HISPANIOLA...THEN CURVING THROUGH 25N66W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES
HISPANIOLA...ASSOCIATED WITH A CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. MIDDLE LEVEL
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ALSO CROSSES HISPANIOLA...ASSOCIATED
WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS ABOUT 250 NM TO
THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO.

CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS COVER SANTO DOMINGO...PUNTA CANA...AND IN
SANTIAGO. FEW LOW CLOUDS WERE BEING REPORTED IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT WESTERLY-TO-
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...AS A RIDGE MOVES
FROM VENEZUELA EASTWARD TO A POSITION THAT IS ABOUT 260 NM TO
THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TRINIDAD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500
MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY AND SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS
HISPANIOLA...ASSOCIATED WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
THAT STARTS NEAR A POSITION THAT IS ABOUT 400 NM TO THE
NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO...AND THEN ENDS NEAR A POSITION THAT IS
ABOUT 630 NM TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT
WILL START IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR A POSITION THAT IS ABOUT
660 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO...AND THE ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER WILL END UP IN 48 HOURS AT A POSITION THAT IS
ABOUT 850 NM TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 33N43W TO 29N47W AND 26N51W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS...WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N45W 26N52W 23N57W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 20W FROM 20N
BEYOND 32N. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 40W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 37N24W...THROUGH 32N31W...TO 27N43W. A SECOND RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
28N53W...TO 26N65W...TO ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...THE 12-HOUR FORECAST OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF
30N TO THE WEST OF 76W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND
SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 50W AND 58W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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