[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 060604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU MAR 06 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...GALE-FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF
MOROCCO...

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO FRANCE GRAND LARGE METAREA II HIGH
SEAS FORECAST FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE GALE-FORCE WINDS THAT
ARE IN THE AGADIR AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY...ALONG THE COAST OF
MOROCCO.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 7N11W TO
5N15W 3N23W AND 2N27W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 2N27W TO 1N30W...
CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 38W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR
3S43W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG
FROM 1N TO 5N BETWEEN 9W AND 20W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 4N BETWEEN 20W AND 36W. ISOLATED MODERATE
TO LOCALLY STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 7N BETWEEN 35W AND 53W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF
50W...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DIGGING THROUGH TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 90W.
THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS THE FEATURE THAT WAS MOVING THROUGH
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS DURING THE MORNING HOURS ABOUT
18 TO 24 HOURS AGO.

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N60W TO
31N64W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N68W TO A 1014 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N72W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
THE 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 30N76W AND 28N79W. A
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 28N79W...ACROSS FLORIDA FROM 27N
TO 28N...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N85W. A WARM FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 27N85W TO 27N90W AND TO A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N93W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM
THE 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 23N94W AND 20N95W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...SCATTERED STRONG TO THE
NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 87W AND 91W. SCATTERED MODERATE IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 24N TO THE WEST OF 75W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH
OF 24N TO THE EAST OF 86W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE
LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N50W 29N60W 24N70W 21N77W.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...AS A RIDGE...HAS BUILT TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ALONG THE
COASTS/COASTAL PLAINS OF TEXAS AND MEXICO...TO 20N.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT ALL THE PLATFORM SITES/
ICAO STATIONS...EXCEPT FOR STATION KVBS...THAT IS ALONG THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA. THE LOW CLOUD CEILING THAT WAS
BEING REPORTED AT STATION KATP DURING THE SEVERAL HOURS HAS
BROKEN UP...SHOWING A CEILING AT 7000 FEET.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE ENTIRE GULF COASTAL PLAINS AND
COASTAL AREAS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. HEAVY RAIN IS BEING REPORTED IN BOOTHVILLE IN
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
CEILINGS COVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. PERRY STILL IS REPORTING A
LOW CLOUD CEILING. MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS
COVER THE FLORIDA COAST FROM BROOKSVILLE TO THE NORTHERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE GREATER TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA. LOW CLOUD
CEILINGS HAVE BEEN REPORTED DURING THE LAST FEW OBSERVATIONS.
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER PARTS OF THE FORT MYERS
METROPOLITAN AREA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT THE 12-HOUR FORECAST OF A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO
BE NEAR 28N85W...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE 1009 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 19N92W. EXPECT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS
20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS BUILDING TO 8 FEET TO THE WEST OF
THE FRONT. EXPECT ALSO SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 23N TO THE EAST OF THE
FRONT TO 83W.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE VENEZUELA COAST THAT IS
NEAR 11N69W...BEYOND HISPANIOLA...THEN CURVING THROUGH 25N66W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE
TRADE WIND FLOW...MOSTLY TO THE NORTH OF 11N63W 13N70W 13N80W...
TO THE NORTH OF 14N TO THE WEST OF 80W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 13N
TO THE WEST OF 76W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 8N82W IN PANAMA BEYOND 6N90W IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. ANY RAINSHOWERS THAT MAY BE IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE SOUTH OF 13N
TO THE WEST OF 76W...ARE RELATED TO TRADE WIND FLOW AND CLUSTERS
OF LOW CLOUDS.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 68W AND 78W.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE VENEZUELA COAST THAT IS
NEAR 11N69W...BEYOND HISPANIOLA...THEN CURVING THROUGH 25N66W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES
HISPANIOLA...ASSOCIATED WITH A CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. MIDDLE LEVEL
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ALSO CROSSES HISPANIOLA...ASSOCIATED
WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS ABOUT 250 NM TO
THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO.

CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW
LOW CLOUDS AND A CLOUD CEILING AT 6000 FEET COVER PUNTA CANA.
FEW LOW CLOUDS COVER SANTO DOMINGO...AS EARLIER CLOUD CEILINGS
AT 7000 FEET HAVE DISAPPEARED. FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE IN
SANTIAGO AND IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT WESTERLY-TO-
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...AS A RIDGE MOVES
FROM VENEZUELA EASTWARD TO A POSITION THAT IS ABOUT 70 NM TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TRINIDAD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB
SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY AND SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS
HISPANIOLA...ASSOCIATED WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
THAT STARTS NEAR A POSITION THAT IS ABOUT 250 NM TO THE NORTH OF
PUERTO RICO...AND THEN ENDS NEAR A POSITION THAT IS ABOUT 560 NM
TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR
700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS
HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT WILL
START IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR A POSITION THAT IS ABOUT 500 NM
TO THE NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO...AND THE ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER WILL END UP IN 48 HOURS AT A POSITION THAT IS
ABOUT 850 NM TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 32N45W TO 29N48W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN
LOW CLOUDS...WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N44W 28N49W 25N53W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 20W FROM 20N BEYOND
32N. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH
OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 40W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 37N23W...THROUGH 32N31W...TO 27N46W...TO A 1023 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N53W...TO 27N67W...TO ANDROS
ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...THE 12-HOUR FORECAST OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF
30N TO THE WEST OF 76W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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